487
FXUS62 KILM 271856
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated. Heat Advisory raised Tuesday for all but
northernmost counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat Advisory likely for part of the area Tuesday.

2) Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory likely for part of the area
Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
20+ degree 850mb temperatures return tomorrow ahead of a cold
front. This will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
90s while dewpoints are progged to get into the mid/upper 70s.
Concerned with NW flow and the steep LL hydrolapse rates that
some lower dewpoints could mix down but after collab with CHS
and CAE have gone ahead and raised a Heat Advisory for all but
northern row of counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
After a moistly rain-free Tuesday a cold
front and mid level trough will impinge upon the area from the NNW.
Models are bullish on both POPS and QPF as this occurs, and the
available moisture concerns expressed above could very well
mean that both are running too high. Assuming that some surface
dewpoint recovery is possible around sunset have not deviated
from blended POPs/QPF with this package. Rainfall totals thus
expected to have a N-S gradient with the Cape Fear Region
nabbing 1-1.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This afternoon`s convection will remain quite randomly spaced and
only lead to minimal, short-lived restrictions. Fog tonight is
slated to remain no worse than MVFR and should favor inland
terminals unless more rainfall develops along the coast today. VFR
for Tuesday with numerous showers and storms holding off until after
the TAF cycle.

Extended Forecast... VFR should dominate thereafter through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Friday... After tonight`s uncharacteristically quiet
set of conditions winds and seas will ramp up considerably as
Tuesday progresses. SCA conditions will likely develop over part
of the area. Given the uncertainty and that we`re talking most
Tuesday night have held off on raising headlines at this time.
Conditions will start to improve Wednesday even if only slowly
but from WEdnesday night onward the gradient grows very weak as
there is no push of high pressure following FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ099-107>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB