453
FXUS62 KILM 180239
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
939 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Departing high pressure will lead to warming temperatures
through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain
likely won`t arrive until this weekend with an approaching
disturbance. Drier weather is expected behind the disturbance.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Hazards: None
*Rain Chances: None
*Temps: Below normal tonight; near normal Tue
*Confidence: High, except Mod to High regarding temps tonight

Details: High pressure centered to the northwest will shift east
and become situated more over the area tonight before
continuing to move offshore tomorrow. Some mid/high clouds will
move through overnight but otherwise conditions should be pretty
good for radiational cooling so we leaned toward the cooler
guidance, especially given what happened last night. Otherwise,
below normal temps tonight in the mid to upper 30s most locales
away from the warmer coastal areas and pretty close to normal
highs on Tue generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High will move off to our northeast ahead of a shortwave/weak
cold front, SW winds bringing above normal temperatures and
increasing cloudiness through the period. The front should move
through sometime Thursday but little change outside of lighter
winds. Highs in the 70s lows near 50, warmer at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An approaching low from will lead to increasing clouds and rain
chances into the end of the week and weekend. This will lead to
lower temperatures but still above normal. The shortwave aloft
should move through sometime Saturday with drying towards the
end of the period behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR continues through the 00Z TAF period. With sfc high pressure
over the area, expect SKC outside of a few high clouds, and
light S/SE winds on Tuesday.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR prevailing, although
there is a very low risk for MVFR/IFR restrictions Wed night
into Thu morning behind a weak cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...High confidence with no significant marine
concerns. High pressure will build in through tonight before
pushing offshore tomorrow allowing northerly winds to shift
onshore with seas falling to 1 ft or less.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...High pressure moves off to the
north ahead of a cold front with SW winds ~10 kts overnight
into Wednesday, the front moving through early Thursday. High
pressure will then build in again before it`s sandwiched between
incoming low pressure, the increased PG bringing SW winds
~15-20 kts. Small Craft conditions are not expected at this
time. Seas will be ~1-3 ft with some 4 footers possible into
Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...RJB/LEW