430
FXUS62 KILM 010557
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1257 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving west-to-east across the region will bring
rain Friday night and Saturday. Warming trend and rain-free
conditions are then expected heading into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will settle into the region today. Little to no
cold air advection following the overnight trough will allow
temperatures to warm a few degrees compared to yesterday. Highs
in the mid and upper 50s to start the New Year.

Winds turn southwesterly tonight which will bring some weak
warm air advection aloft. Resulting lows will be in the mid 30s
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Slight warming and dry Friday with plenty of high clouds. Highs
in the low 60s. The main feature of the short term remains a
low pressure system moving across the lower Mississippi Valley
Friday night, moving over SC late Saturday. This will lead to
prolonged rain chances during the day Saturday with deep
isentropic lift ahead of the low, followed by PVA associated
with parent upper shortwave Saturday evening . Guidance has come
up a bit on QPF for the event, with current forecast of 0.75-1"
of rain for the area. Lingering cool air inland while the low
tracks along the SC coast will lead to a gradient in high temps
Saturday, with low 50s inland and to the north with around 60F
to the south and along the coast. Rain will tape off Saturday
night, with lingering low clouds through Sunday morning keeping
lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather with high pressure and a warming trend will
dominate majority of the long term period. A coastal trough will
try to develop early next week, but dry air over land will keep
any rain chances off the coast. Below normal temps Sunday into
Monday will quickly warm to above normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in VFR throughout the period.

Extended Forecast...MVFR and IFR conditions likely in rain
Saturday and Saturday night as a storm system impacts the area.
VFR late this weekend into next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Breezy winds continue this morning as a
surface trough pushes offshore. Gusts should weaken around
sunrise with high pressure quickly building southward into the
region today. Light westerly winds shift slightly this evening
as high pressure shifts offshore.

Friday through Monday...Southwest winds and seas prevail over
the coastal waters Friday into Friday night. Low pressure system
is forecasted to move across SC late Saturday, moving off the
coast Saturday evening, bringing widespread light to moderate
rain Saturday into early Saturday night. South-southwest winds
and seas increase just ahead of the low Saturday afternoon
before quickly veering to northerly overnight into Sunday
morning as the low exits to the northeast. Winds and seas peak
late Saturday night into Sunday morning, around 20 kts and 3-5
ft waves, with marginal SCA conditions across outer coastal
waters. High pressure building inland will lead to improving
marine conditions heading into next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...VAO/21