Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
149 FXUS62 KILM 291049 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 649 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry weather through tonight. A weak cold front will move through Saturday before stalling offshore into mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry air will be reinforced by an upper level trough this morning. As the trough axis swings through the Carolinas, the current cloud cover will be ushered off to the east and dry air aloft will bring sunny skies. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer without the thick periods of cirrus. Expect temperatures in the mid and upper 80s. Some scattered cloud cover will be possible overnight as a weak shortwave traverses the southern Appalachians. Lows a degree or two warmer than previous nights, low to mid 60s inland, upper 60s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances *Severe storms and flash flooding are highly unlikely *Mainly below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A weak cold front will move through Saturday followed by strengthening high pressure starting Sat night. Meanwhile the broad upper trough will linger with periodic shortwaves, which are tougher to forecast, moving through the region. We will continue to forecast near to below normal rain chances, mainly during the afternoons/early evenings. Limited instability will keep thunder chances very low. Temps will mostly be below normal with highs mainly in the lower to mid 80s and lows generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances early in the week; possibly above normal starting Wed *Very low risk for severe storms/flash flooding Wed/Thu *Mainly below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High thru Tue night *Moderate Wed/Thu Details: A broad upper trough looks to remain in place over the eastern U.S. while surface high pressure remains centered to our north with a front and low pressure likely staying to our south and east. This pattern should keep coastal areas more in line to see some showers while inland areas are drier. However, the upper trough could deepen a bit more toward mid week leading more unsettled weather even across inland areas so will keep an eye on this potential. Temps will stay below normal, except possibly returning closer to normal Thu. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR. Northwest winds expected today behind a trough. A pinned sea breeze will begin to push inland this afternoon and turn S/SE. Extended Outlook... Increasing rain chances could bring intermittent flight restrictions late Saturday. Day to day showers and storms may be possible through the weekend and early next week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Winds turn northwesterly late this morning and into the afternoon as a trough moves offshore. Light winds will be somewhat variable through the early afternoon until the sea breeze becomes more established. The localized sea breeze could produce gusts up to 15 or 20 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. Saturday through Tuesday...A weak cold front will move through Sat before high pressure strengthens north of the area into early next week leading to a stronger pressure gradient as low pressure remains to the southeast. Thus, winds (mainly gusts) and seas could near Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt and/or 6 ft). && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...21 MARINE...RJB/21