144
FXUS62 KILM 311057
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
657 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today and maintain
control through Tuesday before weak low pressure likely impacts
the area mid week. A weak cold front could then impact the area
late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Boundary along the coast along with land breeze producing spotty
showers early this morning. Expect mainly spotty showers earlier
today closer to the coast and offshore, but as dry high pressure
builds in from the north, expect mainly higher clouds by later
today. GFS shows higher pcp water values along and just off the
coast this morning, but diminishing to near and inch by later today.
Looking at the sounding profiles, it looks like mid to high clouds
will basically be passing overhead around base of mid to upper
trough, with considerable dry air moving in within the low levels.
Gusty northeast winds will develop today as high pressure builds in
from the north and low pressure moves up through the offshore waters
producing breezy conditions through this afternoon.

Expect below normal temps with highs today in the low 80s most
places. Dewpoint temps well into the 60s early this morning will
drop out into the 50s inland by later today, allowing for overnight
lows tonight to drop closer to 60 and possibly below over inland
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to below normal rain chances, mainly near the coast
*No risk for severe storms/flash flooding
*Below normal temps

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Inland high
pressure and offshore low pressure will keep a cool northerly flow
in place at the surface. Latest guidance suggests most showers
remaining offshore so we did trend the forecast a bit drier and
removed mention of thunder. Temps will stay below normal with highs
generally in the lower 80s and lows generally around 60 inland and a
bit warmer near the coast (esp Tue night).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to below normal rain chances likely
*No risk for severe storms/flash flooding
*Mainly below normal temps

Confidence:
*Low to Moderate

Details: A broad upper trough looks to remain in place at least
through mid week with at least some weakening late in the week. At
the surface, high pressure to the north will be giving way to weak
low pressure from the south mid week, although the track/timing of
this low is still a bit uncertain. A weak cold front then looks to
approach late week, possibly even moving through SE NC and/or NE SC
at some point. Still keeping rain chances fairly low for now given
the uncertainty. Temps will be below normal through Wed night, then
possibly get back closer to normal late week depending on rain/cloud
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the period after very brief occurrences of
IFR ceilings and MVFR fog this morning. N-NE flow will continue
as high pressure builds in from the north and low pressure
remains well offshore through today. This tightened gradient
flow will produce gusty NE winds through this afternoon. Enough
drier air will move in from the north to suppress most shower
activity. Best chance would be over coastal SC through early
this morning, but did not include in TAF.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions
possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop
through this afternoon as gusty northeast winds develop in tightened
gradient flow between high pressure building in from the north and
low pressure in the offshore waters. Winds will reach up to 20 to 25
kts with gusts up around 30 kts. Seas around 2 to 3 ft will rise
steadily through today in NE push, reaching 4 to 6 ft later today
and peaking later tonight.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will remain centered to the
north thru Tue night with elevated winds/seas around marginal Small
Craft Advisory levels (25 kt and 6 ft) are expected into Mon night.
The high should then weaken mid week as weak low pressure approaches
from the south, likely passing over or near the area by the end of
the period. Although there is some uncertainty regarding the
track/timing of the low Wed/Thu, the chance for SCA conditions seems
very low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     Monday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ