Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
120 FXUS62 KILM 062337 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 737 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1)Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The slight risk has been expanded and now includes most of the area save for marginal for northernmost zones. Vorticity-laden NW flow continues with MLCAPE generally around 2000 J/Kg. Confidence is shaky regarding exact location based upon spread in CAMS, though the nearest term threat appears to be the cluster of storms diving SE out of RAH`s CWA, though they so far have been only SPS-worthy though a small uptick in shear could change that and a few SVR`s may be needed. Guidance is clinging to rain chances over southernmost zones, which are closer to yesterday`s frontal boundary but would not be surprised to see these lowered somewhat as instability wanes to zero. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR following convection along the coast this evening. VFR will continue through the early morning hours, and northeast winds should bring MVFR to much of the region overnight. Some early morning IFR is also possible. VFR will return by mid-morning with a chance of showers and storms in SC tomorrow afternoon. Extended Outlook... Mostly VFR conditions as drier high pressure builds in from the north. && .MARINE... Post-frontal NE flow in place across the area. Tomorrow into tomorrow night high pressure will start pushing the front farther to the south and winds and seas build. The surge that results was previously though to lead to SCA conditions but guidance has backed off slightly on what was marginal in the first place and so have held off for now. A few 25kt gusts still seem possible. The high will be slow to progress keeping onshore flow into Tuesday while speeds abate and some swell energy materializes. Southwesterly flo late in the period increases with the approach of another cold front but no headlines are anticipated. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB KEY MESSAGES...RJB/MBB DISCUSSION...MBB AVIATION...21 MARINE...MBB