805
FXUS62 KILM 110227
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
927 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An abnormally cold and dry airmass will bring the first freeze of
the season tonight. Chilly and breezy conditions will continue
through Wednesday before another cold front slides through on
Wednesday night. A gradual warm up will commence from Thursday
onward.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to include rain and snow showers northern
areas tonight in place of the previous sprinkles and flurries,
based on radar trends and ground reports. Any light precip will
slide east this evening, ending early overnight. Otherwise, no
big changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold air is on schedule to make it`s main move this evening
as various satellite images show the strong vorticity center
now entering Kentucky and Tennessee. In the overall scheme of
things there is very little change in the forecast and hazards
are locked in with the Freeze Warning and Marine Headlines. Lows
are expected to reach 26-32 degree range with the growing
season coming to an end. It`s worth noting that boundary layer
wind may distort temperatures a touch to the upside but even the
warmest scenarios advertise several hours of at or below normal
temperatures. I did add snow flurries to Northern Parts of the
North Carolina counties from about 02-06 UTC. The NAM nest and
other high resolution guidance shows this signature. It should
be emphasized this occurs when surface temperatures are still
above freezing and no impacts are expected. Highs Tuesday will
be in the middle to upper 40s under sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With very dry air remaining in place on Tuesday night and
surface high pressure centered over northern Florida, lows are
forecast to hover within a few degrees of freezing away from the
immediate coast. Despite southwesterly winds around 5-10kts
overnight, pwats are only expected to rebound to around
0.40-0.50", and with the primary moisture contribution being in
the mid-upper troposphere, some thin high clouds may be observed
at the most.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure will remain centered over
northern Florida while another shortwave trough dives down the
backside of broader troughing over the eastern US. A surface
cold front will slide southeast in tandem with this shortwave,
reaching the area on Wednesday night. With the core of the
coldest air mass offshore, expect a noticeable rebound in temps,
with highs expected to reach the low 60s. Enhanced flow aloft
will make for a breezy and dry day, raising some concern for any
outdoor burning in areas which did not see rain with last
night`s front.


The incoming cold front will slide through overnight, marked by
a return to northwest winds by sunrise Thursday morning.
Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 30s to around
40F as some moisture return occurs ahead of the incoming cold
front, raising dew points temporarily. The main effect of this
front will be a reinforcing shot of dry air with pwats expected
to nudge back down into the 0.25-0.40" range, resulting in
another dry day on Thursday. Winds will be considerably weaker
though, and temps should rebound into the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-upper ridging will amplify over the central US and shift
east through the weekend, with the ridge axis expected to be
nearly overhead on Sunday. This will result in a progressive
warmup each day with highs potentially reaching well into the
70s on Sunday. As the ridge amplifies, troughing will deepen
over the Atlantic, and this may result in a backdoor front
nudging into the Cape Fear region on Saturday or Saturday night.
However, overall dry air and subsidence ahead of the incoming
ridge should keep cloud cover low and precip chances near zero
through the period, even if a brief period of northeast winds
were to occur in coastal areas of the Cape Fear region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Broken VFR clouds
expected this evening with some brief MVFR especially over
northern areas associated with a strong trough aloft, becoming
SKC on Tuesday. Only other item of note is gusty WNW winds due
to moderate to strong cold air advection...gusting up to 20-25
kt.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Gale conditions expected tonight with the
strong shortwave moving across. There has been little to no
changes to the winds/gusts or seas for this period. A small
craft advisory will be needed in time for the remainder of
Tuesday. Of note strong offshore winds in tandem with low tides
Tuesday warrant a MWS for lower water levels mainly South
Carolina.

Tuesday night through Friday...A lull in the Small Craft
Advisory conditions is expected over Tuesday night into early
Wednesday as the gradient weakens and the flow settles on
southwesterly. However, an incoming cold front will help to
tighten the gradient again and lead to SCA conditions returning
from Wednesday morning into Wednesday night until the cold
frontal passage occurs, causing winds to turn northwesterly and
weaken late in the night. Winds slacken to around 10 kts or less
on Thursday and become variable through the end of the period
as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually is shoved
offshore on Saturday.

Seas around 1-3 ft on Tuesday night will rapidly increase in
tandem with the winds on Wednesday, reaching 3-6 ft by late
Wednesday. Behind the cold front, seas subside back to around
1-2 ft on Thursday and should remain benign through Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-032-
     033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...SHK/ABW