510
FXUS62 KILM 010158
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
958 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure from the north will continue to maintain control
through Tuesday, before weak low pressure likely impacts the
area by the middle of next week. A weak cold front could then
impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north
and northeast of the area, while the old frontal boundary is
several hundred miles south of the area. The high pressure has
allowed for a pseudo wedge pattern to take hold, with steady
northeasterly flow keeping cooler temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s this afternoon.

Much of the same is expected through tonight and tomorrow.
Pressure gradient remains in place between the high to the
north, and then low pressure along the front to the south. Gusts
decrease just a touch tonight, while cooler, drier air sinks
into the area. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s inland to
the lower 60s at the coast.

Weak wedge pattern continues for Labor Day Monday. Some cirrus
expected throughout the day, coupled with some scattered diurnal
cumulus in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cutoff upper low over NY/PA will open and lift while another,
deeper low approaches the Great Lakes from the NW. The energy
that kicks out the lead low will maintain cyclonic curvature
aloft locally but the column appears too dry for any meaningful
rain chances despite the gentle lift. The continued presence of
surface high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a few
degrees below normal by both day and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gradient eases Wednesday as the high to our north erodes in
strength. A healthy shortwave rounding the base of the trough
tries to draw some frontal moisture north towards the area but
it gets absorbed into the flow almost completely. As the Great
Lakes system spins with little movement there may be just enough
energy rotating around it to draw a little moisture this far
north. The largely failed attempt to pull moisture north into
the area will continue until a cold front sweeps through on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions
possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Small Craft Advisory in place until midnight
EDT Tuesday (i.e., Monday night into Tuesday morning). Stiff
northeasterly wind continues through the entire period, with
gusts up to 27 kts. Seas remain at 3-4 ft at the coast, with 5-6
ft waves found 20 nm offshore.

Monday Night through Friday...Gradient between large high to
our north and a front stalled to the south will be easing
Monday night. Headlines still expected to be lowered but the
abating trend will be slow, it will be Tuesday night before
winds and seas drop below criteria more decidedly. The weakening
high moves off the New England coast late Wed into Thu veering
the winds, eventually attaining a more climatologically common
southern component.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
Pender and New Hanover County Beaches, ie. Surf City to Fort
Fisher. For Monday, waves will become more easterly in
direction with slightly increased periods to 6 to 8 seconds.
This will result in a wave thats becoming more perpendicular to
those east to southeast facing beaches thereby increasing the
threat for more potent rip currents. The strong north to south
longshore current is also expected along those E-SE facing
beaches which may limit the number of rip currents occurrences.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MBB/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH