697
FXUS62 KILM 021854
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
154 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated key message/aviation/marine discussions but no
significant changes were made to the overall forecast message.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures with mainly late
week rain chances.

High pressure will slowly move offshore bringing a warming
trend with temperatures quite a bit above normal much of the
week. Seems to be decent agreement on a more amplified weather
pattern later in the week, with a few upper disturbances likely
bringing increasing moisture and rain chances. However, details
regarding timing and amounts of rainfall are more uncertain. At
this time ensemble guidance suggests total rainfall through
Monday is most likely to be ~0.5" for most locales with a low
chance for 1"+. The latest guidance also suggests a small but
non-zero risk for a few severe storms on Fri depending on the
timing of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the 18Z TAF
period. Very low risk for low clouds anytime and fog late
tonight.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR. Low to moderate risk for
restrictions due to low clouds/rain increases mid week and
continues into early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered northeast of the area will slowly shift
offshore ahead of a weak storm system impacting the area mid to
late week. Elevated seas will continue this afternoon and a few
6 foot seas will remain possible for our southern SC waters.
Conditions will then improve some into mid week and should
remain under Small Craft Advisory levels through the rest of the
week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/21
DISCUSSION...RJB/21
AVIATION...RJB/LEW
MARINE...RJB/21