767
FXUS62 KILM 190702
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with
temperatures above normal for most of the week. Rain chances
will increase late today into Friday due to a slowly passing
cold front. A strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern
U.S. will lead to a warming trend through the weekend into next
week, with the potential for increased heat risk Monday and
Tuesday. Rain chances may return mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*A few severe storms w/ damaging wind gusts possible late this
aftn/eve, mainly in NC
*Above normal temps through tonight with heat indices peaking mostly
around 100 degrees this aftn

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: High pressure will remain centered off to the southeast but
will weaken a bit with time as an inland trough today gives way to
an approaching weak cold front tonight. Expect mainly widely
scattered showers/storms to develop this afternoon near the coast
along the sea breeze with more convection likely to develop inland
later this afternoon near the surface trough and ahead of the front.
Instability/shear don`t appear too favorable for severe storms but
certainly can`t rule out a few damaging wind gusts, especially in NC
where the best combo of shear/instability should occur. Rain will
diminish in intensity/coverage from west to east overnight as the
weak front pushes toward the coast. Temps are expected to remain
above normal through tonight with highs today in the lower to mid
90s away from the cooler coastal areas with lows tonight generally
in the lower to mid 70s. Max heat indices should peak near 100
degrees most locales away from the beaches this afternoon, staying
shy of our Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees).



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An essentially dissipating front/surface trough will
be across the area early Friday morning with perhaps some lingering
convection across eastern areas. Some convection may develop later
Friday as well but overall guidance has shown a distinct drying
trend since this time last night. Saturday will be mostly dry with
perhaps some sea breeze and or southern zones convection. Highs
Friday will be slightly cooler than recent days near 90 slightly
warmer Saturday as any lingering impact with the boundary are
seemingly gone.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes to the extended part of the
forecast this morning. With a strong mid level ridge building in
close proximity to the region hot and mostly dry is the theme. Some
convection may start to develop later in the period. A heat advisory
or two remain in play and it seems Monday and or Tuesday would see
the best chances of reaching criteria.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through most of the 06Z TAF period. Main
concern is possible restrictions from showers/storms early-mid
aftn near the coastal terminals (KMYR/KCRE/KILM) and then inland
(KFLO/KLBT) later this aftn. Showers/storms should then
progress back east toward the coast later this eve/overnight
ahead of a cold front. Even outside convection though gusts to
around 25 kt are expected this aftn/eve, greatest mainly at
KMYR/KCRE/KILM.

Extended Outlook...A weak/stalled front will produce periods of
sub-VFR conds in shwrs/tstms into Fri. Otherwise, brief
restrictions due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms
are possible, mainly through Sat, with building high pressure
squelching convection early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Moderate to high confidence. Offshore high pressure will give
way to an approaching weak cold front tonight. SW winds and seas
will be near SCA levels late today and the first part of
tonight but confidence is still too low to raise any headlines.

Friday through Monday...
A dissipating boundary will lead to essentially a day or
two of light and variable winds across the waters although it
appears a southerly component will be the printout. Beyond this
winds will trend more toward the traditional summertime pattern with
southwest to southeast winds around ten knots or so. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet early trending down to near two feet later in
the forecast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/SHK