472
FXUS62 KILM 051038
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
638 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.
Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One last day of dangerous, potentially record-breaking, heat
today (Saturday) along with a low risk for late day severe
storms and excessive rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...One last day of dangerous, potentially record-
breaking, heat today (Saturday) along with a low risk for late day
severe storms and excessive rainfall.

Should be the last day of excessive heat before a cold front moves
through tonight into Sunday. The more westerly flow and minimal
clouds should allow air temps to soar into the mid to upper 90s,
possibly nearing record territory, especially at Wilmington where
the record high is 95 degrees last set in 2023. The elevated
dewpoints, generally in the mid to upper 70s, will yield rather
oppressive heat indices generally peaking up near 110 degrees in
many spots. Certainly could see brief heat indices over 110 but not
enough confidence/coverage to warrant an Extreme Heat Warning so we
maintained the ongoing Heat Advisory.

Attention then turns to an increasing risk for showers/storms this
afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the
northwest and a more organized line of convection tries to develop
as deep layer shear increases in association with more
troughing/energy aloft. The SPC is still highlighting much of the
area, especially in NC, for a 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms with
the main severe hazards being damaging winds and to a lesser extent
quarter size or larger hail. Heavy rainfall is also likely with a
low risk for flash flooding, especially near the NC coast where
storms may be more persistent near the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions outside of patchy low
stratus/fog this morning that will dissipate quickly shortly
after daybreak. Should see a better risk for restrictions from
showers/storms later in the day as a cold front approaches. We
have changed the PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups, generally for
several hours either side of 00Z, as a likely line of storms
moves southeastward through the area.

Extended Outlook...Moderate risk for low clouds/fog late tonight
with a moderate to high risk for showers/storms Sun/Sun night
and low risk Mon. Generally a low risk for restrictions
thereafter with generally prevailing VFR conditions as high
pressure builds to the north keeping drier air in place.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Wednesday... Pretty typical summertime conditions
today ahead of an approaching cold front which will move through
tonight into Sun shifting winds more northerly, possibly reaching
Small Craft Advisory levels Mon into Tue. Seas also look to build
due to the long onshore fetch developing behind the front, possibly
reaching 6 ft later Monday. Conditions look to improve toward mid
week as high pressure builds more into the area from the north.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/RGZ
MARINE...RJB