Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
045 FXUS62 KILM 311907 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 307 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes coming down the track as we round 3 PM EDT. Cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower Cape Fear River. This evening`s high tide is no longer expected to reach minor coastal flooding thresholds. Elsewhere, updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry and seasonable conditions linger through Saturday. - 2) Unsettled weather expected Sunday, and could last through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions linger through Saturday. Mid-level trough is continuing to slowly push offshore, while a modest shortwave ridge takes its place. Today`s diurnal cumulus will linger through the remainder of this afternoon before fizzling out overnight. Some very isolated, very brief showers have been noted along the seabreeze in Georgetown County. These isolated showers will also die off by sunset this evening. Lows tonight hover around 70 inland, mid 70s at the coast. Saturday looks pretty similar to what we`ve seen today. Highs hit the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast. Diurnal cumulus will get kicked up again by 12-1 PM Saturday afternoon, and the seabreeze will try to generate a brief shower or two. Gradient winds will increase, meaning there will be a more noticeable breeze out of the SE at 10-15 mph. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather expected Sunday, and could last through the middle of next week. Pattern flip on the way Sunday. An upper low currently over parts of Iowa and Minnesota will deepen with an associated trough and move towards the Ohio Valley. This trough remains nearly stationary for 2- 3 days, allowing for plenty of rich SW flow aloft to usher in plenty of moisture. A tropical atmosphere returns, minus the tropical system. Precipitable water (PWAT) values rapidly kick up towards 2.25" by Sunday afternoon, well above normal for early August. Meanwhile, at the surface, an old frontal boundary currently well offshore will sneak back up towards the coastline, allowing for even moisture in the lower levels and some low-level lift. Put all these pieces together, and you get a sustainable rain maker that appears to last through at least Tuesday. There are still questions on where the best rainfall amounts set up, which is dependent upon the exact location and layout of the trough aloft and to the west. Some areas may score with some relatively thin ribbons of moisture that could drop multiple inches of rain within a couple of hours. The decent slug of rain that we recorded last week did improve the drought very slightly, but nearly half of the area (basically east of I-95) is still under an extreme to exceptional drought. We still have a long way to go for substantial drought relief. Upper pattern weakens by Wednesday, with the upper low potentially becoming a cutoff low somewhere over the Ohio Valley. Rain chances still persist Wednesday, but it doesn`t look as organized this time around. Due to clouds and rain, highs linger in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows each night in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Nothing but VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Diurnal cumulus deck has popped up at 6000-8000 ft this afternoon. Seabreeze has allowed for SE to SSE winds at 7-9 kts at the coast, while the inland terminals remain at a light, variable breeze. Seabreeze comes down this evening, and winds should be either calm or light and variable through the overnight hours. Towards the end of the period, gradient winds pick up towards 8-10 kts out of the SE, with some gusts up to 18-20 kts possible. Another cumulus deck should show up by 16-17Z Saturday. Extended Forecast...VFR likely through Saturday evening. At least transient MVFR to IFR restrictions become likely between Sunday and Tuesday as a slow-moving disturbance brings abundant moisture and scattered to widespread showers and storms back into the picture. This system could linger into Wednesday, but confidence is lower there. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Gentle breeze out of the SE will give way to a moderate breeze by Saturday ahead of the next weather system. Seas linger at 2-3 ft throughout this time. By Sunday, the pattern changes, aided by an old frontal boundary that surges northward back through the waters, and an upper level disturbance to the west. Plenty of rain and thunderstorms on the way Sunday through Tuesday. SSW winds take hold late Saturday night, holding all the way through Wednesday. Gradient winds tighten considerably Sunday and Monday, and advisory level winds and seas appear to be nearly certain. Winds come back down towards a moderate breeze Tuesday and Wednesday, while seas gradually improve towards 3-5 ft seas on Tuesday, 2-3 ft seas on Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB KEY MESSAGES...IGB DISCUSSION...IGB AVIATION...IGB MARINE...IGB