228
FXUS62 KILM 311045
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
645 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River,
including Downtown Wilmington, for this afternoon`s high tide.
No significant forecast changes with the latest update. Beach
Hazard Statement issued for strong longshore current at east-
facing beaches today. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures
and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week.

2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast
confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Building high pressure will bring near normal
temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through
early next week.

High pressure will build across the area today following an
early morning cold front. Temperatures will drop to near-normal
through early next week. Northeast winds will be breezy at
times, especially near the coast this afternoon. Dry weather is
expected through much of this week with high pressure in place.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week,
but forecast confidence remains low.

Precipitable water is expected to increase late this week as an
upper low approaches the southeastern US. Southerly return flow
could support an increase in rain chances. Forecast spread in
regards to both upper level heights and precipitable water
remains high in an amplifying pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with scattered to broken high clouds. Northeast winds
through the TAF period, with gusts of 15-20kt through sunset.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR, although a bit better risk
for restrictions due to low clouds/showers toward mid next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure today will be reinforced tonight after a
cold front passes through. High pressure centered north of the
area will then likely prevail into mid next week before forecast
confidence lowers as a more complex weather pattern likely
develops, although poor marine conditions will likely persist
nonetheless. We have initiated Small Craft Advisories for all
nearshore waters outside of the northern SC waters where
conditions are more marginal and confidence is lower.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/21
DISCUSSION...RJB/21
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/21