980
FXUS62 KILM 101853
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued Heat Advisory for Tues afternoon for eastern portion of
area. Also issued Coastal Flood Advisory for minor coastal
flooding along the lower Cape Fear River in the vicinity of
downtown Wilmington for high tide just after 830 pm this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The combination of deep moisture and a passing weak
disturbance aloft will continue to trigger showers and
thunderstorms into late this afternoon.

2) Drier midweek with increasing potential for extreme heat Tuesday
through Friday.

3) Thunderstorm chances should increase again Friday and
Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The combination of deep moisture and a passing weak
disturbance aloft will continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms
into late this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
area until heating cuts off for the day and shortwave moves
eastward late this afternoon into early eve. Bermuda high
pressure centered just south of Bermuda is directing a flow of
moisture from the Gulf and Bahamas northward across the
Carolinas. Plenty of moisture exists with precipitable water
values of 2.0 to 2.4 inches and CAPE greater than 3500 J/kg. A
weak shortwave moving through will enhance the storms and should
see periods of torrential rain associated with any storms that
develop, along with potential for wet microburst producing some
strong gusty winds, and a fair amount of lightning. The steering
flow aloft will drive these storms toward the east and should
see decent coverage over the coastal counties where storms along
the sea breeze boundary will end up.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier midweek with increasing potential for
extreme heat Tuesday through Friday.

Heat Advisory has been issued for the eastern (coastal) portion
of SE North Carolina and NE South Carolina for Tues aftn. The
Bermuda high will shift south Tuesday, then expand a ridge axis
westward across the Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday. The
westerly flow this will create across the Carolinas will bring a
hot airmass overhead with 850 mb temps expected to exceed +20C
through the period. Mixing this down to the surface implies high
temperatures away from the coastline should reach the mid 90s,
perhaps even upper 90s in spots. With dewpoints remaining
seasonably high in the 70s, forecast heat indices should reach
105-110 degrees for at least portions of the area through
midweek with Heat Advisories likely. Heat indices could
reach heat warning criteria (greater than 110 degrees)in spots
by Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Thunderstorm chances should increase again
Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the
north.

The upper air pattern should amplify late this week as a
longwave trough takes shape just off the East Coast and the
former Bermuda ridge retrogrades to the Mississippi Valley.
Northwest flow aloft may push a cold front southward into the
Carolinas for the weekend, accompanied by cooler temperatures
and an uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms will be widespread enough to produce at
least VCTS at all terminals this afternoon. South-southwest
winds around 10 kts today, could gust up around 15 kts, or
possibly higher in and around thunderstorms. VFR conditions
forecasted for tonight with elevated, mainly westerly, winds
and drier air hindering fog or stratus development.

Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through the rest of the
week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning.
The approach of a cold front from the north may lead to
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again by
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda high pressure centered just to the south of Bermuda will
become suppressed farther south over the next few days as a
series of low pressure systems move across southeastern Canada
and New England, lowering surface pressures across the northwest
Atlantic. A very weak piece of one of these disturbances will
move southeastward across the coastal Carolinas this afternoon
into this evening, contributing to showers and thunderstorms,
some with gusty winds, moving eastward over the waters. Otherwise
a typical wind pattern for August should continue through the
week with southwesterly winds backing southerly in the afternoon
with the seabreeze, and veering westerly overnight with the
landbreeze.

Thunderstorm chances should decrease Tuesday through Thursday as
high pressure builds westward along the Gulf Coast. A stronger
disturbance to our north should approach the Carolinas on
Friday, potentially pushing a surface cold front into the area.
This should lead to a larger coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054>056-058-
     059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/RGZ
DISCUSSION...TRA/RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ