Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
478 FXUS62 KILM 082347 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 747 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple surges of Gulf moisture will bring rain to the area Saturday, Sunday, and Monday ahead of the next cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple surges of Gulf moisture will bring rain to the area Saturday, Sunday, and Monday ahead of the next cold front. A wave of low pressure developing along a stalled frontal boundary to our south overnight will push moisture northward through the day on Saturday. Weak shortwave energy coupled with this moisture will produce isolated showers throughout the day. HREF probabilities show spotty precipitation entering the forecast area just after sunrise with the bulk of activity between sunrise and early afternoon. It does not appear that precipitation will be uniform at any point during the day which could be quite frustrating for any outdoor plans. Showers should remain light for much of the day with total QPF through Saturday evening of around a tenth, up to a quarter of an inch along the immediate coast. Lower heights and an intrusion of drier air aloft could produce a few isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. These will likely be lower in coverage than the broad area of spotty showers earlier in the day. The best chance of precip extending into the afternoon will be near the coast. Shortwave number two arrives from the Gulf late Saturday night into Sunday bringing another round of scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. Forecast PoPs range from 20-30 percent northern areas to 40-50 percent southern areas. The final shortwave should arrive on Monday coincident with a surface cold front that extends from Nova Scotia all the way into northern Mexico. Models are hinting at a late afternoon or early evening frontal passage across the eastern Carolinas with deep moisture and reasonably good upper dynamics present, all factors that support 80-90 percent PoPs. To summarize, rain chances spread out across three days on the back of recent measurable rain won`t be enough to end the drought, but should prevent further degradation from occurring over the next one or two weeks. QPF of one-half to one inch is expected through Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR thru around 12Z. The risk for MVFR cigs and showers then increases and continues much of the day, although won`t be continuous. Maintained PROB30s for now given some uncertainty in the timing of heavier rain. There is also a risk for a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, although not enough to add to TAFs just yet. Afternoon gusts up to 20 knots are possible, especially as mid levels dry and some peeks of sunshine mix stronger winds down to the ground. Extended Forecast... Restrictions likely due to an unsettled weather pattern Sat night thru Mon night with VFR returning Tue and likely prevailing thru Wed. && .MARINE... Through Saturday... Light and variable winds will turn southerly later today and overnight. Following a weak wave of low pressure, southerly winds increase to 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to 20 knots on Saturday afternoon. Seas generally around 2 feet, increasing to 2-3 feet on Saturday afternoon during the brief increase in southerly winds. Seas around 3 feet in the 20-60 nm offshore waters. Saturday night through Wednesday... Southerly flow continues for the remainder of the weekend into early next week with sfc high pressure positioned offshore. Sustained winds up to around 10 kt Sunday will slowly veer to the SW then W through the day Monday at 10-15 kt as a cold front slides into the area, followed by an uptick in winds Monday night following the cold fropa. Confidence is still low to moderate on the need for a SCA over the 0-20 NM coastal waters as gusts will be close to 25 kt with weak-moderate CAA, and seas up to 4-6 ft. Gusts likely top out around 25-30 kt on average over the 20-60 NM waters. Marine conditions then improve for late Tuesday into Wednesday as sfc high pressure moves through the area and offshore. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...TRA/MAS/21 AVIATION...RJB MARINE...MAS/21