265
FXUS62 KILM 311823
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
223 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure from the north will continue to maintain control
through Tuesday, before weak low pressure likely impacts the
area by the middle of next week. A weak cold front could then
impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north and
northeast of the area, while the old frontal boundary is several
hundred miles south of the area. The high pressure has allowed for a
pseudo wedge pattern to take hold, with steady northeasterly flow
keeping cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon.

Much of the same is expected through tonight and tomorrow. Pressure
gradient remains in place between the high to the north, and then
low pressure along the front to the south. Gusts decrease just a
touch tonight, while cooler, drier air sinks into the area. Lows
tonight range from the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s at the
coast.

Weak wedge pattern continues for Labor Day Monday. Some cirrus
expected throughout the day, coupled with some scattered diurnal
cumulus in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cutoff upper low over NY/PA will open and lift while another,
deeper low approaches the Great Lakes from the NW. The energy that
kicks out the lead low will maintain cyclonic curvature aloft
locally but the column appears too dry for any meaningful rain
chances despite the gentle lift. The continued presence of surface
high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a few degrees
below normal by both day and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gradient eases Wednesday as the high to our north erodes in
strength. A healthy shortwave rounding the base of the trough tries
to draw some frontal moisture north towards the area but it gets
absorbed into the flow almost completely. As the Great Lakes system
spins with little movement there may be just enough energy rotating
around it to draw a little moisture this far north. The largely
failed attempt to pull moisture north into the area will continue
until a cold front sweeps through on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Stiff northeasterly breeze sticks
around through the next 24 hours. Gusts likely calm by the evening
at KFLO and KLBT, while gusts up to 15-18 kts may occasionally occur
during the overnight hours. Gusts should become more widespread
again towards the end of the period. Drier and cooler air spreads
through the area tonight, so there shouldn`t be any fog or stratus
concerns.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions
possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Small Craft Advisory in place until midnight EDT
Tuesday (i.e., Monday night into Tuesday morning). Stiff
northeasterly wind continues through the entire period, with gusts
up to 27 kts. Seas remain at 3-4 ft at the coast, with 5-6 ft waves
found 20 nm offshore.

Monday Night through Friday...Gradient between large high to our
north and a front stalled to the south will be easing Monday night.
Headlines still expected to be lowered but the abating trend will be
slow, it will be Tuesday  night before winds and seas drop below
criteria more decidedly. The weakening high moves off the New
England coast late Wed into Thu veering the winds, eventually
attaining a more climatologically common southern component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/IGB