480
FXUS62 KILM 242343
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
743 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving into the area will bring thunderstorms to
the area this evening. This front will dissipate over the area
on Wednesday. Conditions will be hot and humid through the
weekend. A second front will move across the region on Thursday
bring a good chance of thunderstorms. A third front will move
into the area by Sunday and this will bring slightly cooler
temperatures to the region on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
The hottest day of the year (so far) yielded 100 degree
temperatures in Florence tying a daily record from 2015, and 99
degrees in Wilmington breaking a daily record from 2010.

Moderate to large instability with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg has
developed ahead of a weak front dropping southward. An earlier
severe thunderstorm across New Hanover and Pender counties
produced multiple reports of quarter size hail and strong winds.
This threat may continue a bit longer before activity weakens
and shifts southward and offshore. After collaboration with SPC
I`ve extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch an additional hour
until 9 PM for Brunswick and New Hanover counties plus the
coastal waters. Forecast PoPs through the remainder of the
evening hours are highest across New Hanover and Brunswick
counties (60-70 percent) with 30-60 percent chances across the
Pee Dee region and Grand Strand.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front looks to have hung up to our west with this
convection mostly due to a shortwave aloft, some drier air
pushing in, and just a generally unstable atmosphere due to
temps/dewpoints. The dry air is sequestering most of the
activity which is expected to shift towards the coast by
midnight as the actual front moves through. Lows will be tricky
again tonight but hopefully not as warm as yesterday as it looks
like the boundary sticks to the coast overnight. Clouds may be
possible along the coast but unsure about fog inland due to the
modest rainfall totals we`re seeing currently. Tomorrow the
front will lift back to the north. Have cooler conditions near
the coast with warmer temps inland. Isolated convection is
possible during the afternoon primarily near the coast and in NE
SC. No severe weather is expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An old front will shift northward over the forecast area on Tuesday
evening and dissipate by Wednesday morning.  In the upper levels, a
weak high will develop on Wednesday before a mid-level trough shifts
into the Carolinas.  Hot and humid conditions will continue with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.  High temperatures will
reach the upper 90 inland and lower 90s on the coast. Lows will
range between 72 and 75 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The next best chance of precipitation is Thursday as a surface front
moves into our region and dissipates on Friday.  A second surface
front moves to the coast Sunday night, and another good chance for
thunderstorms will help with the current rain deficit. Hot and muggy
conditions will continue with a slight cool down on Monday. Highs in
the mid-90s inland are expected Thursday through Sunday and lower
90s by Monday.  Heat advisory conditions are possible each afternoon
between Thursday and Sunday, but we`re keeping a close eye on
it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front dipping southward across the Carolinas is
responsible for ongoing clusters of thunderstorms. Inland
convective shower activity across the KFLO airport should
dissipate by 02z, however along the coast heavier thunderstorms
have a high potential to bring airport weather impacts,
especially at KILM now through 03z where gusty winds and IFR
visibility in heavy rain are expected. There is a moderate to
high potential for MVFR or brief IFR impacts at KMYR and KCRE
through 04z.

After 04z, convection should weaken significantly over land but
may remain active across the ocean overnight as the front dips
south.

There is a low to moderate potential for MVFR visibility in
ground fog at KFLO and KLBT late tonight, mainly in the 08-12z
timeframe.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday, Small Craft Conditions linger in our NC waters
primarily due to seas. Isolated strong storms are possible over
the waters this evening ahead of a front. Conditions should
start to improve as the front reaches the coast late tonight
before lifting back north through Tuesday. Winds will turn to
the ESE near 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft.

Tuesday Night through Saturday, Winds from the southeast to
southwest through most of the forecast period, with winds
generally around 10 knots. Seas will range between 2 and 3 feet.
No advisories are expected.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM