408
FXUS62 KILM 290756
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section for 06Z TAFs. High rip current risk
expanded to include Georgetown and Pender county beaches, in
addition to New Hanover.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure to the northeast weakens today, though minor
coastal flooding and adverse marine and surf conditions
continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure to the northeast weakens today,
though minor coastal flooding and adverse marine and surf
conditions continue.

Northeast winds continue, albeit with lower speeds as high
pressure northeast of the area weakens and moves farther
offshore. However, strong, dangerous rip currents as well as
strong long shore currents, for east facing beaches, remain a
concern through the end of the week. Marine forecast details can
be found in the marine discussion.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged,
strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over
minor flooding thresholds, especially with the late morning/midday
high tides. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for this
morning`s high tides.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry
for the next several days. Cloud cover around this morning with
low level moisture moving onshore. The enhanced moisture and
weak low level convergence may lead to a few sprinkles along the
SC coast around daybreak. At the surface, high pressure
continues to weaken today, decreasing northeast winds.
Temperatures above normal through Fri before a dry cold front
moving in from the north Fri night drops temperatures near
normal for the weekend. Rain chances may return late Sun or Sun
night as a front system affects the Southeast. Confidence in
timing and amounts remains limited.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR through the valid TAF period. Low potential for
some brief MVFR ceilings AoA 2k ft through around 14Z. Overall
potential is low with ceilings more likely to be in the 3k-4k ft
range and transient. There will be periods of time through
daybreak when skies are clear to mostly clear. Northeast winds
continue today and tonight with speeds decreasing as the high,
now centered to the northeast, weakens. Few if any gusts this
afternoon with speeds under 10 kt at all terminals. Light winds
tonight along with increased boundary layer moisture may set the
stage for some MVFR/IFR fog, especially for inland terminals as
the TAF period comes to an end. Confidence is low right now, but
something to keep an eye on.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sunday outside of patchy fog
Friday morning. MVFR/IFR possible Sunday night into Monday
morning with the next system.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory continues, although based on latest buoy
obs it may be a bit marginal outside of 15-20 NM miles.
Northeast winds continue into next week, but speeds will be
decreasing through Fri as high pressure to the northeast
continues to weaken. Cold front moves in from the north Fri
night, followed by a surge in northeast flow this weekend.
Speeds peak around 20 kt, but will stay on the high end of the
15-20 kt range through Mon. Seas will flirt with advisory
thresholds Sat-Mon, especially for the 10-20 NM portion of the
nearshore waters. The presence of the easterly swell, which
will be 4-5 ft this weekend, coupled with a strengthened wind
wave may be enough to warrant an advisory. Winds and seas will
be a little higher for the 20-60 NM waters this weekend and
early next week, with northeast flow 20-25 kt and seas 5-7 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM