493
FXUS62 KILM 110129
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
929 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions
will impact the area as low pressure moves slowly north along
the Southeast Coast tonight through Sunday. Several inches of
rain could fall along the coast. Improvement is expected to
begin Sunday as dry high pressure builds in.

&&

.UPDATE...
Gale Warning extended for all waters thru midnight Sat night.
Although experiencing a brief "lull" in speeds attm, still
expect the already tightened sfc pg to further tighten Sat into
Sat evening as developing/intensifying sfc low off GA/FL coasts
tonight tracks along the SC then NC coasts Sat into Sun.
Consolidated low or several individual vorticies still remains
the question. As a result, wind directions to run initially NE
then back to the N during Sat into Sat night. Sounding profiles
from the GFS indicate NE 40-45 kt sustained off the deck with
the NAM indicating NE 50+ kt just off the deck.

Minor coastal flooding issued for the Lower Cape Fear River from
midnight thru 3am with a 106am high tide. The early Sat morning
high tide will be the is the lower of the 2 daily highs. So
expect the worse flooding from the Sat early aftn high tide
cycle.

Overall, massaged current obs and trends into the overnight
thru daytime Sat. POPs initially adjusted for the remainder of
the evening into the overnight based on latest radar trends and
HRRR guidance. Expect the diurnal temp range to likely remain
below 10 degrees tonight thru Sat night. With the low track
remaining over the waters, do not expect any major influx of
warm air from any onshore movement of a coastal front with this
system attm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure still in its formative stages east of Florida
peninsula with baroclinic leaf presentation in vis/IR channels.
Meanwhile WV imagery shows the strong energy aloft that will
cause the low to strengthen as its starts lifting northward,
also likely acquiring more than one center as it does so.
Despite this strengthening being quite tempered, healthy
isentropic upglide develops locally for a rain shield that will
spread north-northwesterd across the area with increasing
coverage and intensity. Forecast rainfall amounts maxing out in
the Cape Fear region of 1-3" should be readily absorbed by our
D0 and D1 soils for only minor, localized flooding at most.
Inland areas will see far lower rainfall amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Gusty winds will continue but rain will become more
intermittent and lighter Sat night into Sun as the best lift and
moisture from the coastal low shifts northward. The actual
center of the low will be slower to leave the area but should
consolidate closer to Hatteras late Sun through Sun night.
Although the center, off the Cape Fear coast late Sat becomes
somewhat more elongated Sat night into Sun, the center will
shift north with the east to southeast low level onshore push
becoming northerly on the back end through Sun night into Mon.
The column will begin to dry out aloft, but upper low will
remain over the area and therefore clouds and chc of pcp will
remain until upper low lifts off to the north into Mon aftn.
Inland areas may see better chc later on Sat and Sun, but lower
end QPF across most places after Sat night.

Clouds and rain will keep high temps closer to 70 and holding in
the mid to upper 60s Sat night, but by Sun night as cooler
northerly flow develops, we should see temps drop closer to 60
or just below across inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to lift off to the north and east Mon
night into Tues will high pressure building down from the Upper
Midwest. Northerly flow on the back end of the low will weaken
with dry weather expected through much of the week ahead. Winds
will diminish into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to dominate initially followed by intermittent MVFR after
06z-12z, mainly across the coastal terminals. Look for MVFR
dominating across all terminals after 12Z Sat, with tempo and/or
prob30 IFR conditions commonplace from 12Z Sat thru 00Z Sun.
PCPN will be in the form of -shra initially then occasionally
SHRA and possibly +SHRA especially at the coastal terminals
during the IFR periods. NNE-NE winds 10-15 g20 kt to dominate
overnight...increasing to 10-20 kt with g25+ kt. The hier side
of the wind range will occur at the coastal terminals along with
the frequency of the 25+ kt gusts.

Extended outlook...Following the nor`easter the probability of
weather impacts will decrease late Sat night but especially
by Sun afternoon with generally VFR conditions expected Mon
into Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...
Marginal Gale Warning continues as low pressure east of FL
still in its formative stage. And although moving forward past
this evening`s expiration of the headline the forecast itself
isn`t overly complicated headlines may get tricky. There may be
a minor down-tick in winds into SCA realm leading up to a
possible return of gale force gusts Saturday. Given that we have
a bit more time to examine wind potential and the lowered
confidence and also in an attempt to stack up confusing
headlines have made no changes at this time.

Saturday night through Tuesday...
Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain through the
latter half of the weekend with possible period of gale gusts
Sat night. Overall winds will be up to 30 kts out of the N to
NE, backing around to the NW as a coastal low moves up the coast
toward Hatteras Sun into Sun night. Seas up to 6 to 9 ft Sat
night will drop off slowly through early next week dropping
down to 3 to 5 ft by Tues.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The increasingly long fetch of NE winds into the area will
continue to promote advisory level flooding at the beaches
during the mid to late morning high tides even as the
astronomical component wanes, roughly during the next 2 days or
so. Lower Cape Fear River minor flooding will reach/surpass 5.5
ft MLLW minor thresholds for both high tide cycles likely
thruout the entire weekend. The early afternoon high tide will
be the hier/worse flooding of the 2 per day.

A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect for the Pender,
New Hanover, and Georgetown County beaches where east-northeasterly
swells will have the most direct wave impact on the coast. Surf
conditions could remain hazardous through the weekend as the
Nor`easterly moves slowly north along the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH