Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
893 FXUS62 KILM 151727 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 127 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fairly weak weather features impacting the area during the near term period. Scattered showers and storms will develop on features like the sea breeze, a weak surface trough inland, and storm outflows through Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Typical summer time conditions expected as mid level ridging builds in through the period. The subtle mid level zonal flow to the north of the ridge allows a very warm westerly flow through the lower levels to develop thus the heat switch will be on. We see this synoptic pattern frequently across our area. With convection limited hence the building ridge...highs will build into the middle 90s and with juicy dewpoints the chances for a heat advisory increase in time. Lows will be in the middle 70s perhaps upper 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Heat related headlines will once again be possible Saturday and perhaps again Sunday as the mid level configuration of the strong ridge and westerly warming flow to the north remains more or less intact. It appears the pattern begins a subtle change later in the period and into early next week via a more Northwest flow as the main ridge pushes to the west. This shift allows a more conducive environment for convection and thermal profiles to decrease slightly. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expecting mainly VFR conditions through the 18Z valid taf period with a few of caveats. First, isolated to scattered showers and storms could bring brief mvfr/ifr conditions to terminals this afternoon, mainly inland. Second, some guidance is showing mvfr vsbys/ifr cigs late tonight, especially inland. Confidence in restrictions late tonight is too low for inclusion in the forecast attm. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...expect S to SE winds of 10 KT into tonight before winds become more southerly at 10 to 15 KT for Wednesday. Seas will run 2 to 3 FT. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Summer time pattern will be in place through the period for the coastal waters forecast. Winds will be from the south/southwest in a range of 15-20 knots at least Thursday and Friday when the inland trough is enhanced. This feature dissipates slightly for the remainder of the period with speeds walking down to 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the higher seas generally early on with the stronger winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...31 MARINE...SHK/31