864
FXUS62 KILM 011049
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
649 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain control into the
middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could
lead to a few showers. Slightly better rain chances Sunday into
Monday as a somewhat stronger front moves into the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Aviation discussion updated below for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Decent bit of dry air advected into the area in northerly flow
between high extending in from the north and low pressure along old
frontal boundary. The axis of dry air was very apparent with pcp
water values down just below .8 inches into the Coastal Carolinas.
This will get nudged farther inland some through today as winds
become slightly more NE catching some of the Atlantic moisture and
bringing pcp water values back up above and inch. Overall, still
expecting a dry day with plenty of sunshine mixing with fairly flat
cu in the aftn and some cirrus aloft. Will not rule out a stray
shower along coastal SC toward the early evening. Cool northeasterly
flow will maintain below normal temps in the lower 80s this
afternoon and overnight lows between 60 and 65 most places, with
some temps dropping just below 60, mainly west of I-95. Should see
another breezy day with gusty NE winds coming day a bit into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Center of elongated surface ridge to the northwest of the local area
and troughing at 5h sets up a pattern more typical of the cool
season, with predictable results. Temperatures will run a little
below normal, but with little to no rain chances through the middle
of the week. Varying amounts of mid-level moisture will lead to some
patches of high clouds spreading over the Southeast, but there isn`t
enough moisture for showers despite some marginal instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longwave 5h trough will remain over the East Coast into next week. A
series of shortwaves will push a couple cold fronts through the
region this weekend. Return flow ahead of the first front, slated
for Fri night into Sat, may kick off a few showers and maybe even a
thunderstorm Thu and Fri afternoon. However, forcing is limited and
precipitable water is generally below normal so coverage would be
quite limited. Second front moves into the area Sun, accompanied by
a bit more moisture which may be converted into some scattered
convection. However, the overall pattern lends more to stretched
out, moisture starved fronts. Similar to what we see later in the
fall and in early to mid spring, our driest times, so probably best
to not count on much rain through the long term. Temperatures above
normal into Sat before cooler air moves in next week, dropping
temperatures below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Persistent N-NE
flow, between high pressure extending in from the north and low
pressure along old frontal boundary off the Southeast coast,
will become gusty at times this afternoon. Sounding profiles
show some cu around 3-5k ft, mixing with some higher cirrus.
Overall, a dry forecast, although a couple of the models show a
stray shower may affect coastal terminals into early this
evening with potential for very brief MVFR, but chances are too
low to include any mention in TAFs.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions possible
due to a passing SHRA close to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue
through today as gusty northeast winds persist in tightened
gradient flow between high pressure extending down into the
Carolinas from the north and low pressure along old frontal
boundary in the offshore waters. Winds will reach up around 25
kts with some higher gusts. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft through
the afternoon but will diminish to under 6 ft by late day from
south to north as the low moves farther away. By this evening,
seas will diminish to 3 to 5 ft except for the outer waters,
mainly beyond 15 nm.

Tuesday through Friday...
Location of surface ridge axis maintains northeast flow Tue and
Wed before the ridge axis shifts northeast. The moving of the
ridge axis opens the door for return flow. Light southeast Thu
becomes south to southwest Fri with increasing speeds as the
gradient becomes more defined. Seas will trend down through the
week as the northeast wind wave gradually drops out and an east
to southeast swell becomes more apparent.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: High risk for strong rip currents for
Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Breaking waves around 3
ft and the onshore swell direction today create conditions that
favor the development of strong rip currents. A strong north to
south longshore current will develop today along the beaches of
Pender and New Hanover counties in North Carolina and along the
beaches of Horry and Georgetown counties in South Carolina. The
strong long shore current may limit the number of rip currents,
however conditions will be conducive for the development of
strong rip currents.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM