Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
938 FXUS62 KILM 281755 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1255 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the coast by Sunday as a cold front approaches, creating a brief warming trend for the area. Rain chances increase into next week as a wave of low pressure moves up the Southeast coast, potentially bringing some good rain Tuesday. A dry period is expected behind this disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... The entire period is mainly just a temperature forecast, and a cold one at that. High pressure overnight will progress east and find a center over WV. For idealized radiational cooling I`d like to see that center be a bit closer but forecast soundings do show a good enough signal for rad cooling (deep surface-based inversion) to go with some of the chillier blended guidance. A few record lows could be challenged at the area plunges into the 20s. Interestingly at ILM the MAV guidance of 24 (tying the record) is colder than most of the blended guidance. With a light N breeze some of the pocosin area cold air may drain this far south. For Saturday the high will still be translating eastward but at a slower pace keeping our wind light and out of the NE. This will keep mixing pretty shallow, less than 3kft for another afternoon where highs fail to exceed 50. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure starts to push offshore of the mid-Atlantic and New England states, while southwesterly flow increases aloft. This period starts chilly, with lows Saturday night drop to near or just below freezing inland, mid-to-upper 30s at the coast. But the southwesterly flow quickly changes the tone, as highs quickly shoot up into the 60s Sunday afternoon (some may even have a shot at 70 degrees). Moisture on the rise ahead of a cold front that will push through the area Sunday night. This moisture increase will manifest in cloud cover at first, transitioning to a slight chance of showers late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Lows Sunday night range from the mid-to-upper 30s inland to the mid 40s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast looks to dry out a bit Monday, with the aforementioned front stalled offshore. Chilly air comes back into play, with highs in the low-to-mid 50s. All eyes on Tuesday`s system, which still looks like it could bring the best dose of rain we`ve seen in awhile. A surface low will emerge out of the Gulf and soar through Georgia and the Carolinas, aided by plenty of shortwave energy aloft. Guidance seems to slightly favor a coastal track as opposed to an inland track, but the trends still don`t look that convincing. An even bigger forecast problem right now is the speed of the low, where model data is spread out all over the place (it actually looks a bit worse than yesterday). All of these details still a play a major role in determining temperature, rainfall amounts, instability, and more. Need to wait to have more forecast certainty before we can talk specifics. Looks like the low exits off to the northeast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, which brings in high pressure that dries out the area Wednesday and Thursday. More unsettled weather may arrive by Friday. Temperatures remain below normal across the board. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail with a mostly dry column expected through tonight into Saturday. Mixing will lead to some gusts during the afternoon. Decoupling will allow for very light winds overnight, but as high pressure shifts toward the east the light flow will veer. Not much in the way of any clouds other than some cirrus moving in from the west. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief flight restrictions possible the first part of the upcoming week as a coastal trough/warm front lifts northward. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...High pressure moves east tonight becoming centered over WV. This will slightly veer the NW flow to N in the 10-15kt range with a few gusts to 20. The high moves east again Saturday but at a slower clip making for an additional and gradual veer to NE. The 4 second wind chop will dominate the weak SE swell. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Northeasterly winds drop below 10 kts and gradually veer to the south throughout the day Sunday ahead of a cold front, with seas holding steady at 1-2 ft. Front moves through Sunday night before stalling offshore of the coastal waters by Monday. Winds veer back to the northeast by Monday, and the pressure gradient quickly increases, with gusts up to 20 kts by the afternoon, and seas up to 2-4 ft. Strong low pressure system ejects out of the Gulf and moves through Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday, veering the winds again to the SSW. Winds and seas easily push into Small Craft Advisory criteria. Depending on the track of the low, the forecast may trend towards gale force gusts, but that remains to be seen. Low exits the area Tuesday night, and winds veer to the NNE and fall to 10-15 kts throughout the day Wednesday. Seas come back down to 2-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/IGB