


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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629 FXUS62 KILM 152103 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 503 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A passing dry cold front tonight will usher in the coolest air since Spring. The late week period will feature another warm-up until the next cold front arrives Sunday night with cooler and drier weather returning to start the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expansive low stratus deck currently over eastern NC is expected to finally clear out of the Cape Fear region around 3-5pm this afternoon, which would give the area a couple of hours of sunshine before sunset. Once these clouds clear out, the skies will be predominantly clear through Thursday. The exception will be a few mid level clouds moving south across the area tonight as a dry cold front moves through the area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s as cool air moves in behind the front, with deep northerly flow in place through Thursday between ridge to the west and trough to the east. Airmass continues to dry out during the day Thursday, with PWATs around 0.75-1" in the morning lowering to 0.4" by late afternoon (below 10th percentile for this time of year (looking at MHX and CHS sounding climatology). At the surface, dewpoints in the low 40s will begin advecting in from the north later in the day Thursday. High temps around 70-73F Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highly amplified pattern will persist at the mid levels through the short term period Friday with a cyclonic flow across the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure will slowly build in from the northwest and bring the coolest air mass of the season to the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s(warmer Saturday) with lows in the middle to perhaps lower 40s at least Friday morning. A little warmer Saturday morning via air mass modification. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The highly amplified pattern will turn more zonal leading to a system moving across Sunday into early Monday. This system lacks significant moisture and low chance pops are representative of this late Sunday into early Monday. Cooler and drier for early next week. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expansive low stratus deck over eastern NC, currently impacting KILM, KSUT and KACZ, is expected to finally clear out of the Cape Fear region around 20-22z this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period, with only a few mid- level clouds overnight associated with a dry cold frontal passage. Calm winds tonight with N winds 5-10 kts and gusts to 15 kts Thursday. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Thursday... Northerly winds and NE seas will persist across the local coastal waters through Thursday. Winds 10-15 kts into tonight will increase to 15-20 kts by Thursday morning behind a dry cold front overnight. Gusts of 20-25 kts will be possible early Thursday. Seas 2-4 ft into tonight will increase to 3-5 ft for Thursday due to slightly building ENE swell. Thursday Night through Monday... High pressure slowly builds in from the north/northwest. Winds will maintain a northerly component of mostly 10-15 knots early on dropping a bit before a brief southwest flow Sunday. Significant seas...with the highest values offshore will mainly see a range of 2-4 feet increasing a bit Sunday with the southwest flow. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding continues to impact our coastlines, particularly SE NC coast, and well as the Lower Cape Fear River (LCFR) which includes Downtown Wilmington. As we approach a new moon (next Tuesday), current forecast has minor coastal flooding forecasted during afternoon high tides for SE NC at least into the weekend, with NE SC water levels approaching minor flooding. The LCFR is forecasted to reach minor flood levels during each high tide cycle into the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...VAO MARINE...SHK/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO