801
FXUS62 KILM 142309
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
709 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will
dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Evening update to adjust POP based on current and expected storm
coverage through the evening. Although many of the CAMs keep
convection going for another few hours, current radar is showing
an obvious weakening trend along with a reduction in coverage.
While SBCAPE remains high, the highest MLCAPE has shifted
inland, which is where the few remaining storms that survive
continue to thrive. The lack of any outside forcing and a weaker
Piedmont trough compared to yesterday will bring an end to
shower and thunderstorm chances locally within the next hour.

May have some fog issue overnight, especially across inland
areas that did see storms yesterday and today. Closer to the
coast boundary layer winds are a bit stronger than last night so
not expecting much if any fog across coastal counties.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Synoptic pattern remains essentially the same through the near
term period perhaps a slightly stronger ridge to the west
Tuesday. For this afternoon lower pops remain in place near the
sea breeze then a shift inland with activity that develops in
the lee of the mountains then drifts east before dying. For
Tuesday it appears a sea breeze shower kind of day with the band
moving well inland during the afternoon hours. Regarding
temperatures nothing really stands out with highs a couple of
degrees either side of 90 and lows generally in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Similar setup Wednesday as Tuesday with an inland lee trough and
Bermuda sfc high pressure offshore. The high nudges westwards
midweek, allowing for a slight uptick in southerly gradient
winds. Rain chances at 50-60% are a bit above climo due to the
best deep layer moisture of any day this week, along with the
typical forcing mechanisms of the sea breeze, lee trough and
daytime sfc heating. High temps are right at normal for this
time of year...highs around 90 degrees most areas with heat
indices maxing out close to 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PoPs in the chance range each day this period with a fairly
steady synoptic pattern of weak ridging aloft coming in from the
south, an inland thermal trough, and Bermuda high pressure. Of
note is the increasing heat risk through the week, with
conditions very close to around Heat Advisory criteria each day;
highest heat risk is over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Currently VFR at all sites. Along the coast expect VFR to
continue tonight with perhaps some patchy MVFR ceilings for
CRE. Boundary layer winds along the coast are stronger than they
were last night and the mixed layer is a little deeper. This
should prevent any fog development and help keep any ceilings
that develop above 1k.

For inland sites anticipate another night of short duration IFR
with light boundary layer winds allowing for IFR visibility,
and possibly ceilings. Slightly better chances at FLO tonight
because of the rain that fell there late afternoon/early evening
from a lone thunderstorm.

Expecting a similar day tomorrow to what occurred today. No real
change in air mass with the storms being driven by daytime
heating, the sea breeze, the Piedmont trough and any storm
outflow. Coverage will be limited, like it was today, with
favored locations difficult to pick out 18-24 hours in advance.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early
morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...A typical synoptic summer pattern will be in
place through the period for the marine community. Winds will
be from the south/southeast essentially sea breeze driven as the
inland/Piedmont trough is very weak and arguably non existent
at times. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet at most.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Winds consistently out of the
S to SW this period with Bermuda high pressure offshore and
daily sea breezes with winds up to 15-20 kt at times, but mostly
in the 10-15 kt range. Seas will average 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft at
times starting Thursday night as 7-8 second SE swell builds
slightly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK/31
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MAS/SHK