305
FXUS62 KILM 251033
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
633 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will be stalled in the area today before lifting
back to the north on Wednesday. Very hot conditions will
continue all week, an upper disturbance bringing widespread
showers and storms on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Patchy fog and low clouds developed along the NC coast this
morning and spread inland. Advection fog in NE flow should mix
out shortly after sunrise. Isolated showers and storms expected
this afternoon with another day of above normal temperatures
and high humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front currently west of the I-95 corridor will attempt
to push through the forecast area this morning. Models continue
to suggest this front will make it to the coast and just
offshore before retreating westward this afternoon. However, the
lack of movement over the last several hours and the arrival of
easterly flow this morning are likely to initially push the
weak front westward, if at all. The latest forecast update will
keep all of coastal NC/SC in the oppressive pre-frontal air mass
with the front making no additional eastward progress.

Onshore flow today will maintain humid conditions near the coast
with areas along and west of I-95 staying hot, but much less humid.
Partial thicknesses will be similar to yesterday and we should see
widespread temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100, especially
inland SC. High temperatures are a little tricky due to guidance
struggling with the position of a weak cold front. Regardless, dew
points will be a degree or two lower in a drier mixed layer this
afternoon. Onshore flow near the coast will keep temperatures
slightly cooler than yesterday, but the added humidity will offer
little relief.

Isolated showers and storms are expected along the coast this
afternoon where low level convergence and instability will be best.
The best chance of seeing a storm will be in extreme southeastern NC
and areas east of I-95 in SC. Warm and humid overnight with most of
the area in the mid 70s. This will set up a very hot day on
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dewpoints will be back into the mid/upper 70s on Wednesday as the
front that brought Tuesday`s minor reprieve lifts back to the north.
Despite the heat and humidity there will be no widespread forcing
for ascent and convection will remain rather isolated in nature,
likely driven by mesoscale boundaries.  This changes on Thursday as
our WNW mid level flow pushes a few vorticity centers across the
area. The mid level forcing combined with continued ample
instability should favor scattered to numerous mainly afternoon
thunderstorms.  Weak shear should not support any organized severe
weather threats. Both afternoons appear to be candidates for a Heat
Advisory for areas away from the immediate coast though Thursday`s
more widespread storms could hamper the heat compares to Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The highlight of the long term will be the continuation of above
normal temperatures through at least Sunday.  Rain chances will be
elevated above normal on Friday as Thursday`s front will still be
meandering around. And like Thursday this could make some areas fall
short of Heat Advisory criteria while other areas get there. Over
the weekend as rain chances decrease areas away from the beaches
should attain criteria in a more widespread manner ahead of the cold
front that may arrive on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds and fog associated with NE winds will impact the NC
terminals this morning with a higher impact for coastal areas.
Near minimums along the coast for an hour or two after sunrise
with rapid improvement thereafter. Pockets of IFR likely to
disperse between 13-14Z as winds become more easterly. VFR will
dominate today for all areas. Isolated thunderstorms expected
this afternoon, mainly in coastal SC and extreme southeastern
NC.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms continue this
morning as outflow driven convection pushes offshore. Easterly
flow develops today as high pressure settles to our north and
the cold front retreats inland. Onshore flow will be enhanced
this afternoon as onshore temperatures soar into 90s. Winds will
generally be in around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
near the coast. Seas gradually improve this evening from 3-4
feet today to 2-3 feet tonight, but the addition of a easterly
wind wave will maintain an unsettled sea state into Wednesday.

Wednesday through Saturday... Front from the near term washes back
north/weakens by Wed and southerly flow returns. A small SE swell
will mix in the the southerly wind wave yielding a general 2-3 ft
forecast. A front dropping into the area on Thursday will not have
much of an effect on wind or seas. A weak boundary dropping in and
stalling Friday will bring lighter winds with some variability to
the still predominantly south wind. That is, flow may vary from SW
to SE. This boundary should be gone by Saturday but return flow
never really strengthens so expect southerly winds capped at 10kt
and the swell/chop mix to keep on at 2-3 ft total.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM