404
FXUS62 KILM 010015
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
815 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. The final Surf Zone
Forecast of 2026 was issued today; these will resume on April
1, 2027.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and
dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week.

2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast
confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will bring near normal
temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through
early next week.

The local area will remain under the influence of sfc high
pressure centered off to the NE through at least early next week
leading to several days of quiet, dry weather with temps near
normal. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially
near the coast during the daytime periods.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week,
but forecast confidence remains low.

As sfc high pressure pushes farther offshore during the middle
of next week, the upr-level pattern will start to transition as
a deeper trough approaches from the west. Although forecast
spread in regards to both upr-level heights and precipitable
water remains high in this more amplifying pattern, southerly
return flow would support an increase in rain chances later in
the week. Latest forecast calls for a 30-40% of rain Thursday
and Friday, with a dry forecast before then, aside from
offshore where chances for showers are higher.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR continues through the TAF period with steady northeast
winds and broken high clouds. Some gustiness may develop at the
coastal terminals tomorrow mainly in the afternoon, but speeds
will be less than earlier today.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR. The risk for restrictions
due to low clouds/showers increases on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
With sfc high pressure locked in place to the N/NE, moderate NE
flow will continue over the waters. A SCA remains in effect for
all coastal waters outside of the northern SC waters where
conditions are more marginal. The headline now ends late Sunday
night, when seas should dip below 6 ft with gusts decreasing to
below 25 kt. Not much change into the first half of next week,
with ~20 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas continuing through at least
Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS/VAO
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS