473
FXUS62 KILM 181727
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
127 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast has trended drier for the weekend but there remains
a chance for rain basically every day for the next few days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Lower rain chances for the weekend.

2) A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday followed by more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lower rain chances for the weeendd.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...An area of showers and
thunderstrorms should move across the area this evening
associated with a front/trough. The northeast flow in the wake
of the front lingers well into Sunday thus now limiting rain
chances with lower instability. The best chances reside along
the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday
followed by more seasonable temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Mostly dry conditions will be in
place Monday with a weak pressure pattern both aloft and at the
surface. A stronger front pushes south Tuesday with increased
pops followed by dry high pressure for the remainder of the
week. Temperatures...slightly above normal early will trend
downward in time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue for the most part.
However guidance is consistent on an area of showers and
thunderstorms affecting most areas this evening perhaps favoring the
coast slightly. Used PROB 30 groups to address. Perhaps some fog or
stratus may develop in the wake of this activity but confidence is
low on this for now.


Extended Outlook...There is a moderate potential for MVFR/IFR
Saturday due to scattered thunderstorms, decreasing slightly on
Sunday. Morning ground fog possible each morning through
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
The light winds with a southerly component will continue
through this evening. In the wake of a cluster of storms and frontal
passage winds will be from the NE and linger into Sunday. This is a
change from the previous thinking where the front would make a quick
retreat north. For Monday and Tuesday winds will be almost light and
variable with if anything a southeast flow seemingly driven by the
sea breeze. Finally still looking at a stronger NE flow by the
middle part of next week with a stronger frontal passage.
Significant seas stay muted outside of convection in a 2-3 foot
range increasing late with the wind speed increase.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK