549
FXUS62 KILM 021956
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain control into the
middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could
lead to a few showers into the weekend with temperatures warming
above normal. Slightly better rain chances Sunday as a somewhat
stronger front moves into the area. Ridging high pressure
behind the front brings a return of cooler temperatures into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Persistent troughing over the eastern US has maintained cooler
than normal temperatures this afternoon. Dry air and light NE
winds will keep temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s
tonight. The trough axis will swing through the region on
Wednesday, but dry air throughout the column should keep the
primary threat to a few mid and upper level clouds. Temperatures
remain below normal with generally low to mid 80s forecast on
Wednesday. Given that there could be some afternoon cloud
cover, temperatures may fall short a degree or two short of
forecast highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue through the short term period with a
warm up. High pressure will move overhead Wednesday night before
pushing offshore, but it will remain stretched along the coast
through much of Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach
from the west. This will put us in more a SW flow pattern which
will allow warmer temperatures to break through the cool spell
we`ve been having. Highs will warm up to near normal, in the mid
to upper 80s. Lows similarly will respond, with Wednesday night
remaining crisp in the lower 60s but Thursday night warming to
the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period looks to remain mostly dry as the front approaches
into the weekend. It looks to get hung up in the mountains
Saturday with only a pulse of forcing aloft making it to us.
Some showers may be possible Saturday due to this but better
chances (30%) will be for Sunday when the boundary is actually
supposed to move through. Highs will rise above normal with the
warmest day currently looking like Saturday, highs in the 90s.
Headed into early next week the pattern begins to look much like
what we have now, with the front stalling offshore and high
pressure to our north ridging down into the area. Temperatures
will drop again with a low chances of showers at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Winds decrease to around 5-10 knots tonight as the
gradient relaxes. This should be enough to limit fog development
inland.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances could return Saturday with
intermittent restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Breezy NE winds continue this afternoon
with periodic gusts up to 25 knots and seas between 3-5 feet. As
low pressure to our southeast moves offshore and high pressure
over the northeastern US weakens, the local gradient should
relax. This will allow winds to gradually weaken on Wednesday.
Winds turn easterly during the afternoon. Seas will respond
slowly during the afternoon falling from 3-4 feet to 2-3 feet by
Wednesday evening.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...High pressure will move
overhead for Thursday before moving offshore ahead of a cold
front. Through the period, light morning winds will become
onshore in the afternoons ~10-15 kts. Sunday will see the front
move offshore with winds coming around to the E-NE, increasing
in speed overnight to 15- 20 kts. Seas will decrease from 3-5 ft
overnight Wednesday to 1-3 ft by Thursday, where they`ll remain
for the rest of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/LEW