515
FXUS62 KILM 140559
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
159 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will
dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. A front could near mid week bringing a bit better
rain chances. Should see increasing heat risk by Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Mainly isolated/scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms
*Very low severe storm risk w/ a bit greater flash flood risk inland
closer to I-95
*Mostly near normal temps w/ peak heat indices away from the coast
up to around 103 deg today, shy of Heat Advisory criteria

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Atlantic high pressure centered to the east along with an
inland trough will dominate the weather this period with much of the
same weather as the last few days. However, weak low pressure to the
south near the eastern FL coast will cause an inverted trough to
extend northward into the local area, mainly tonight, which could
lead to a bit better chance of showers offshore and near the coast
late. Otherwise, after inland fog dissipates shortly after sunrise,
expect a few showers to initiate along the weak sea breeze near the
coast before shifting inland where coverage will be greater by late
afternoon/evening. Another round of fog is likely inland tonight.
Highs today near normal ranging from the upper 80s near the coast to
lower 90s inland with heat indices inland today peaking shy of Heat
Advisory criteria (105 deg). Lows tonight generally near to a bit
above normal in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda High builds westward a bit with a slight uptick in
gradient winds out of the south into midweek, mainly starting
Wed. This could help with nocturnal showers mainly over the
adjacent waters and along the coast earlier in the day. In the
mid to upper levels, a ridge will remain to the south, but a
shortwave should drive a front into the Carolinas and could
help to enhance convection into midweek. Overall, expect main
focus of shwrs/tstms along sea breeze and inland along Piedmont
trough, but may see a bit more activity into midweek as
front/Piedmont trough gets a push eastward. High temps will be
near or perhaps slightly below normal, but overall, hot and
humid summertime weather will continue with clouds and shwrs
affecting daytime highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid to upper ridge builds up from the south with height rises
and increasing heat Thurs through Sat. Looks like the warmest
day should be Fri with mid 90s for temps most places. This will
combine with typical summertime humidity and should give way to
increasing potential for heat advisory conditions and heat risk
Fri and Sat. Ridging aloft should increase subsidence and dry
air through the mid levels and expect convection to be more
limited Thurs through Sat, with main focus of localized
convection along the sea breeze and Piedmont trough during the
aftn into early eve.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 06Z/15. Main
concerns are fog/stratus through daybreak, especially inland at
KLBT/FLO where IFR or worse are likely. Also, some showers/storms
are likely to develop near the coast starting late morning,
generally shifting inland along the sea breeze during the day.
Additional showers/storms should develop inland closer to a lee-side
trough so overall the best rain chances should be at KFLO/KLBT this
aftn/eve. More fog/stratus likely tonight but mainly after 06Z.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early morning
fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Weak low pressure will remain south of the area
while a weak inverted trough extends northward into the local
waters. Light E winds around 10 kt or less will shift to SE/S this
afternoon. Significant sea heights will stay 2 ft or less.

Tuesday through Friday...Bermuda High will build westward
through midweek pushing wind an seas up from near 10 kts Tues up
to 10 to 15 kts beginning Wed. This slight increase to the
persistent southerly winds will drive seas up a foot or two from
2 to 3 ft on Tues up to 3 to 4 ft by Thurs and Fri, but
remaining well below any advisory thresholds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/RGZ