Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
691 FXUS62 KILM 030952 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 452 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will return through Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front will drop through late Thursday. Waves of low pressure will develop along this lingering front, bringing clouds and periods of rain from Friday into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions may return early next week. && .UPDATE... Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. Otherwise, no significant changes to the public/marine forecasts. Watching the tides which may reach minor coastal flood thresholds during the upcoming high tide, especially in SC, but confidence is too low to put out an Advisory. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Dense fog possible tonight *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Below normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: High pressure will prevail with dry weather and below normal temperatures expected. Main concern is the risk for dense fog tonight given pretty decent radiational cooling conditions and the wet ground from recent rainfall, although it could just be shallow and not cause significant visibility reductions. Highs today mainly around 50 degrees with sub-freezing temperatures into the upper 20s likely tonight away from the milder coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry and slightly warmer Thursday as high clouds start to build in through the day ahead of moisture from the SW. A weak backdoor front will drop through Thursday night and the increased flow between high pressure over the Midwestern states and low pressure near the Gulf will push more moisture to the east over our area. This will make light rain possible late Thursday night. Rain chances will continue to expand over the area from west to east through Friday and Friday night due to influence from a nearby low off the SE coast. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5" are possible but there is still uncertainty due to the nature of the frontal system. Highs will drop Thursday to Friday with the frontal passage by ~10 degrees, and lows will remain in the mid to upper 30s. The colder areas to our north could see wintry precip but for now we remain firmly in rain territory. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Solid rain chances could linger through Saturday and Saturday night as the frontal system continues offshore but a stalled front remains nearby. Rain chances should start to really abate through Sunday before another, drier frontal passage drops through Monday with low rain chances mostly near the coast and offshore. Dry conditions should return for Tuesday and Wednesday though there are hints that the pattern may become wet again towards the end of the period. The coldest night looks to be Monday night but otherwise highs will be in or near the 50s so not much change there. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z TAFs: Moderate to high confidence thru about 06Z, then low to moderate confidence. Despite surface high pressure building in, mid-level energy will be moving through keeping a few patches of low clouds around the area today (mainly SE of KLBT thru about 00Z) with a very low risk for MVFR cigs, and even lower but non-zero risk for IFR cigs. Decent radiational cooling conditions tonight along with the lingering low-level moisture and wet ground from recent rainfall should support fog starting around 06Z, initially at KLBT and then spreading SE toward the coast. LIFR/VLIFR vsbys are possible, although the fog may be shallow enough in nature to not impact vsbys too much so confidence is lower regarding impacts. Thus, will only introduce MVFR vsbys for now. Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail through Thursday night outside of possible dense fog late tonight. Another storm system will likely bring restrictions starting as early as Friday but more likely starting Friday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure will build into the area with improving marine conditions as the pressure gradient slackens. Thursday through Monday...Offshore flow ~10 kts will become NE ~15 kts as a cold front pushes through Thursday night/Friday morning. N to NE winds will then linger through the rest of the period 10-15 kts with in increase to 15-20 kts Monday due to a passing frontal system. Seas 2-3 ft with 4 footers possible Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE... NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/LEW