Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
548 FXUS62 KILM 011035 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 7 AM EDT Update... Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. 3 AM EDT Update... All sections have been updated, although there are no significant changes to the overall forecast messaging. Still some uncertainty regarding rain amounts this weekend into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High pressure will bring above normal temps and mainly dry weather through early Saturday with above normal rain chances later Saturday through at least Sunday night along with cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring above normal temps and mainly dry weather through early Saturday with above normal rain chances later Saturday through at least Sunday night along with cooler temps. High pressure will continue into early Sat keeping a warming trend through Fri night. Highs around 90 are likely inland today and Friday with humidity slowly continuing to increase. Rain chances will be on the increase later Saturday as high pressure weakens, a cold front approaches and moisture/upper forcing increase. Rain chances should remain above normal through at least Sunday night as the front slows down and lingers over or near the area. Trends favor a drier Monday, especially for northern/western areas, so confidence in the latest forecast rain chances is low. At least there is a decent chance for beneficial rainfall over an inch, which would be very welcome considering the ongoing drought in most areas. Still not expecting any appreciable severe storm risk (mainly just on Sat), although locally heavy rainfall could produce minor flooding. Much cooler and drier air should move in Mon night with below normal temps (highs mainly in the low 70s and lows in the 40s/50s, coldest Tue night when many inland areas could fall into the 40s). && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Patchy fog is heaviest near the coast this morning. Gradual improvement is expected over the next couple of hours, although some stratus may linger slightly longer. High confidence in mostly VFR conditions with generally light and variable winds today. Similar setup for fog or stratus expected tonight. 12Z Fri thru Mon: Moderate to high risk for late night/early morning fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture through the end of the week. Moderate to high risk for showers/storms starting mainly Sat aftn at all terminals and continuing through Mon as a front stalls over or near the area. && .MARINE... Rather benign marine conditions expected through much of the weekend until Monday when high pressure building in from the north shoves a wavering frontal boundary over the area to the south. Hazardous conditions, including possible gales in the NC waters, are likely starting Monday night as winds pick up out of the N/NE. Significant wave heights could reach 6 ft within 20 nm and 7-8 ft beyond 40 nm from shore by daybreak Tue. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB KEY MESSAGES...RJB DISCUSSION...RJB AVIATION...RJB/21 MARINE...IGB