754
FXUS62 KILM 020002
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
802 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

Beach Hazards Statement issued for strong longshore currents
Tuesday for east-facing beaches.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Seabreeze Showers & Storms Possible This Afternoon; Cold
  Front Brings More Organized Activity Tonight.

- 2) Unseasonably Cool Weather Tuesday and Wednesday, Gradually
  Warming Up Throughout the Week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Seabreeze Showers & Storms Possible This
Afternoon; Cold Front Brings More Organized Activity Tonight.

As of 2 PM EDT this afternoon, showers have formed along the
seabreeze, with the activity most concentrated in central Horry
County and northern Georgetown County. Ample cloud cover and some
lack of buoyancy means that instability is limited, but I cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder along the convergence boundary.
Seabreeze activity should be limited towards the coastal counties,
with some NNW to NW flow helping to pin it back a bit.

Bigger story is a cold front that is dropping southward tonight.
Showers and storms are already lighting up ahead of it, with a few
noted across parts of the Charlotte area and upstate SC. This
activity will continue to push towards the local forecast area this
evening. Showers and storms will try to push into parts of the Pee
Dee region and the NC coastal plain before sunset, continuing to
drag across the area tonight. Some folks in the coastal areas may
wake up to thunder overnight tonight, but severe weather is not
expected at this time. This line should push offshore by 2-4 AM EDT
tonight. Some stratiform rain leftover from the precip shield may
stick around during the Tuesday morning commute along the coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Unseasonably Cool Weather Tuesday and Wednesday,
Gradually Warming Up Throughout the Week.

Canadian high pressure slips in behind the cold front, creating
much cooler and drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs
Tuesday only reach the mid-to-upper 70s Tuesday, which looks
more like mid-late April than early June. Tuesday night, lows
may drop down into the upper 40s in some of the cold spots of
Pender County. Temperatures rebound slightly on Wednesday, but
several areas still likely won`t hit 80 degrees just yet. On top
of it all, dewpoints sink down into the 40s and 50s.

Temperatures and dewpoints both start to steadily rise each day
through the rest of the week. By Sunday, some inland areas may
try to reach 90 degrees. Dewpoints in the 60s return Friday. Dry
forecast remains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. A cold front will cause
some showers/storms overnight which will be pushing closer to
the coast with time and ending by around 12Z. MVFR cigs are a
decent bet at times into Tue, especially in association with the
rain tonight. There is even a low risk for IFR conds overnight.
Otherwise, gusty NE winds will kick in toward daybreak and gust
up to around 20 kt much of the day.

Extended Forecast...Widespread VFR expected Tuesday night
through Friday. Only exception could be some patchy fog heading
into sunrise Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Gentle breeze out of the southeast gradually
becomes more variable late tonight as a cold front sweeps
southward through the waters. Prior to the frontal passage, seas
along the coastal waters out 20 nm linger at 2-4 ft, up to 4-5
ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm. After the front moves
through, stiff northeasterly flow sets in, kicking up to a fresh
to strong breeze. Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 8
AM EDT for the coastal waters from Surf City to Little River
Inlet, and then at 11 AM EDT for the coastal waters from Little
River Inlet to South Santee River. Seas increase to 4-6 ft over
the coastal waters, 6-9 ft over the offshore waters.

Tuesday Night through Friday...Northeasterly winds will
gradually come down towards a moderate to fresh breeze, with the
Small Craft Advisory due to expire at 2 AM EDT Thursday. From
there, winds back slightly to the north, coming down to a gentle
to moderate breeze, before veering towards the southeast by
Thursday evening. Seas over the coastal waters come down to 2-4
ft, offshore waters down to 4-6 ft. Winds and seas continue to
come down through Friday, with winds being more variable at
times under high pressure.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
 for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...RJB/IGB
MARINE...IGB