462
FXUS62 KILM 090613
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
213 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 06 UTC Tafs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift from the SC
Lowcountry today back into northeastern South Carolina and
southeastern North Carolina Sunday into Monday.

2) Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through Thursday, but with
increasing temperatures and potential for the heat index to exceed
105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mid level ridging remains the dominant feature
across the area today. For today the Pee Dee region is favored
once again for convection but coverage will be isolated. Worth
noting is a couple of cells developed in SE NC yesterday as well
so with such an unstable air mass in place it appears all areas
at least have a minimal threat for convection. Height falls
with an approaching front/trough/sea breeze increase chances
across all areas Monday but timing is trending for later in the
day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture remains limited in the prevailing
northwest flow allowing heat index values to increase to
possible headline criteria. This is predicated on a mostly dry
forecast which still this time of year is low confidence
especially several days in a row. Shorter daylight
hours...starting to be noticeable now make it more difficult
for excessive heat as does the ever present complication of dry
air mixing down each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With a very persistent pattern in place the 06 UTC taf forecast
is just a time extension of the previous forecast. Lumberton
and Florence have seen IFR visibilities and ceilings the past
few mornings and surface observations show they are on their way
again. Used prevailing for the MVFR beginning then transitioned
to more restrictive tempo groups. Amendments closer to 12 UTC
may be able to apply prevailing restrictions for an hour or two.


Extended Forecast...Brief MVFR/IFR possible in showers and
storms with at least isolated coverage possible through the
period, greater coverage expected Monday. Late night/early
morning low ceilings are possible day, especially inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda high pressure offshore should remain the dominant
weather maker for us over the next five days. The center of the
high is currently between Bermuda and Cape Fear. The high
should sink south next week, leading to winds veering more
westerly and increasing in speed. We also should experience a
larger number of showers and thunderstorms today and especially
Monday. Not really seeing anything in the winds or seas that
come close to any headlines.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM/SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK/LEW
MARINE...SHK