Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
144 FXUS62 KILM 081840 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 240 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast high temperatures and heat indices have been tweaked higher Wednesday through Friday. A Heat Advisory may be needed Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible through this evening as a front sinks southward across the Carolinas. 2) Heat and humidity will build late this week as high pressure develops along the Gulf Coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible through this evening as a front sinks southward across the Carolinas. A front is moving south across southeastern North Carolina currently and 12z synoptic and high-res models continue to indicate there will be enough low level convergence and uncapped instability to generate convective showers west of Wilmington through early this evening. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show decent instability just above the mixed layer, but a layer of warm air between 12k-16kft may slow down updrafts leaving fewer to make it up into steeper lapse rates aloft. Assuming sustained convection develops, there`s a good deal of dry air up above 12kft that will become entrained into downdrafts, conditionally creating gusty winds. The high ratio of calculated DCAPE to CAPE hints at this as well. We`re likely not talking damaging winds, but some 40 mph gusts wouldn`t be surprising. Coverage should remain limited to 20-40 percent across interior southeastern North Carolina west of Wilmington and perhaps over a small portion of the SC Pee Dee region north of Florence. Any showers should end no later than 9-10 PM as activity moves westward into the central Carolinas and/or dissipates entirely. KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat and humidity will build late this week as high pressure develops along the Gulf Coast. Mid and upper level ridging should expand across the Gulf Coast the second half of the week. The 850 mb high should sit just off the Southeast coast while the surface high migrates out toward Bermuda. This pattern should create building heat and humidity each day Wednesday through Friday, likely yielding the hottest temperatures and heat indices we`ve seen yet this year. The ECMWF and Canadian both show 850 mb temps rising to near +20C Friday afternoon while the 12z GFS has +21C. This is 2 to 3 degrees C above the 90th percentile and is close to daily record values for this time of year using the KMHX sounding climatology. We`ve increased forecast high temperatures by another degree late this week with mid to upper 90s across most of interior eastern North and South Carolina Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. There`s a number of NBM component members showing 100 degree heat possible at Lumberton on Friday. This kind of heat in Lumberton would not be unprecedented this early in the season: June 1 and 2, 2022 both saw 100 degree temperatures recorded at the Lumberton airport. With dewpoints anticipated to run in the upper 60s inland and lower 70s near the coast, heat indices will exceed 100 degrees at late this week. We`ve already got some 105+ degree heat index pixels showing up from Burgaw to Elizabethtown to Tabor City that could require our first Heat Advisory of the year. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front is dipping southward into southeastern North Carolina this afternoon and may bring showers and isolated thunderstorms. The potential for impacts at KILM is low between 18-20z, and is moderate at KLBT between 19z-01z. Considerable dry air aloft may act to limit coverage of convection, however if a deep enough convective shower or storm can form there could rather easily create gusty winds in the vicinity. Cell movement should be from east to west. The front should settle into northeastern South Carolina this evening producing only a wind shift to easterly low level winds. There is a moderate chance of post-frontal low stratus near 2000 feet AGL at KILM and KCRE after 06-08z, and a high chance of similar conditions at KFLO and KLBT after 08-09z. These low cloud ceilings should scatter out along the coast by 12z, but could linger through 15z at KLBT and KFLO. Extended Forecast...Late night/early morning low stratus is possible at KLBT and KFLO Tuesday night and again Wednesday night. Isolated mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop each afternoon, mainly inland from the coast. && .MARINE... A cold front will sink south across the area this evening, bringing a shift to east and northeast winds. There won`t be an appreciable increase in wind speed from Myrtle Beach southward, however in the Cape Fear area and northward winds should increase to a solid 15 knots for a 6 hour period this evening before diminishing again overnight. Seas around 2 feet this afternoon should build to around 3 feet near and north of Cape Fear tonight. The front should dissipate across South Carolina on Tuesday as high pressure off the East Coast becomes the dominant weather feature. Winds should turn southerly again by Tuesday evening, then southwesterly for the remainder of the week in a very summerlike weather pattern. Afternoon seabreeze enhancement to the synoptic southwesterly wind could increase speeds to near 20 knots by Thursday into Friday, building seas to 3 feet within 20 miles of shore, and to 4 feet across the 20-60 mile offshore zones. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA