541
FXUS62 KILM 050653
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
153 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to
severe storms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance
of strong to severe storms.

After a dry day today aside from some very spotty light showers
well inland, a mid-level trough and sfc cold front will move in
from the west on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center now
highlights a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) of severe
storms Friday afternoon and early evening, with the main threat
being damaging wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will increase
through the day, but a lot is contingent on pockets of heating
and destabilization to occur, and with much cloud cover
expected early on, the threat appears rather low at this point.
Regardless, chances of rain are at least 80% over most of the
area, with up to quarter to half an inch of rainfall expected
on average. The front pushes offshore Friday night, giving way
to dry weather over the weekend into at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR to start of the 06Z TAF period aside from KILM where
shallow dense ground fog has developed this past hour. Moist
low-levels and decreasing winds will allow for moderate
confidence in another round of LIFR to VLIFR fog and low cigs
this morning, handled mainly by TEMPO groups. One factor that
may limit the duration and magnitude of impacts is ongoing
cirrus from an approaching front and patches of marine
stratocumulus moving onshore. Nevertheless, given higher
dewpoints than last night and mostly thin high cirrus are
passing overhead, confidence is high enough to include fog and
low stratus at all terminals. With SE winds picking up in the
morning, fog and low stratus should exit the coast by around 13Z
while restrictions linger inland until mid morning. After
morning restrictions burn off, mainly VFR can be expected,
although the initial cumulus field that develops around midday
into the early afternoon can result in transient MVFR cigs.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times from
late tonight through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds
along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to
return Friday night as drier air filters in and remains in
place through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week. A
cold front crosses the waters Friday night, but post-frontal CAA
is fairly weak so only expecting gusts up to 15-20 kt into the
day Saturday. Even weaker winds for early next week as sfc high
pressure builds directly into the area from the west.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...MAS/ABW
MARINE...MAS