


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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562 FXUS62 KILM 130625 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 225 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure just offshore will weaken and move farther away from the area today. Dry high pressure will then build in and prevail through late week, with the chilliest air since last April arriving Thursday and Friday after a dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High pressure will then shift offshore early next week bringing warmer and moister conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface low off the northeastern SC coast continues to weaken and gradually push offshore. Remnant showers have formed in southeastern NC, removed from the areas of heavy rain earlier in the day. These showers will gradually drift south and east over the next few hours as the center of the low drifts offshore. Drizzle outside of these heavier showers may cause some hazardous travel early this morning as visibility is reduced and road remain slick. No significant QPF is expected with this band of rain. Precip finally comes to an end this morning as the upper low moves eastward and drier air in northerly flow aloft increases. Subsidence following the low will shield low clouds from scouring, so expect a good amount of cloud cover through the morning hours. Peeks of sunshine should start to appear this afternoon as dry air overpowers the remaining moisture layers. Highs will be a little tricky as a result. Lower 70s (possibly upper 60s) over the eastern half of the CWA with low to as warm as mid 70s inland. Clouds return overnight due to the inversion aloft and saturated surface layer. This will dampen both Tuesday morning moods and the diurnal range with lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: mainly zero, although drizzle and/or light showers possible Tue (mainly in NC) *Temps: near to below normal Confidence: *High Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Dry conditions will mostly prevail with a warming trend ahead of a dry cold frontal passage Wed night. Some lingering low-level moisture and mid-level shortwave energy could lead to drizzle and/or very light showers Tue, especially in NC. Otherwise, colder/drier air will arrive Wed night, with low temps possibly flirting with the upper 40s across some of the normally colder inland spots. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: mainly zero *Temps: below normal thru Sat, then near to above normal Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Dry and cooler high pressure will prevail late week with below normal temps. The coldest night should be Thu night when lower 40s are likely in the normally colder rural spots. Warmer and moister conditions will then return late in the weekend as high pressure moves offshore and a southerly flow develops, with even a very low chance of a shower inland late Sun. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Remnant showers continue to impact coastal areas early this morning. IFR should prevail in areas where showers occur, MVFR elsewhere. Drizzle may also produce a brief IFR restriction inland as precip dissipates. Gusty N and NW winds up to 20-25 knots continue across the region early this morning. Despite a weakening gradient, deeper mixing today will allow these gusts to persist. Hi-res models suggest that light showers will continue into the morning with precip ending and MVFR stratus becoming widespread by 15-18Z. VFR should develop this afternoon as dry air pushes southward across the region. Low level moisture could produce restrictions tonight. Extended Outlook... Low level moisture could produce stratus late tonight into Tuesday morning. VFR returns on Tuesday and should continue through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this morning due to seas in excess of 6 feet and winds over NC waters around 25 knots. The gradient will likely weaken sufficiently enough for gusts to fall below 25 knots over the next few hours, but seas will take some time to return below 6 feet. Improving conditions this evening should close the book on any remaining advisories. Seas return to around 2-4 feet tonight. Tuesday through Friday...Moderate to high confidence through the period. High pressure from the north will prevail. Breezy conditions and elevated seas will continue near Small Craft Advisory levels at times into Thu, especially in the NC waters, before high pressure shifts south and more overhead leading to a weaker pressure gradient. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk of rip currents at beaches north of Cape Fear, with only a low to moderate risk south of there through Georgetown County. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...21 MARINE...RJB/21 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...