Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
883 FXUS62 KILM 051833 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 233 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Elevated rain chances continue through Thursday, with rain chances closer to seasonal norms from Friday through early next week. 2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Elevated rain chances continue through Thursday, with rain chances closer to seasonal norms from Friday through early next week. Similar to the last couple nights, another round of showers and isolated storms is expected to develop late in the night and affect coastal areas mainly on Thursday morning. As high-level debris clouds spread west, this will limit heating for inland areas in the morning. However, after morning cloud cover thins out, a separate area of showers and storms is expected to develop inland from the coast during the afternoon as the air heats up. Very heavy rain remains the primary concern as precipitable water values around 2- 2.2" continue to stream across the area. Although southerly low to mid-level flow of 10-20 kts should keep most of the showers and storms moving, if an outflow boundary happens to push out of a storm towards the south, isolated flash flooding may occur due to heavy rain persisting over the same area. From Friday onward, the upper disturbance that has remained in place over the last few days should be a shadow of its former self with a remnant weakness in the height field between the large upper high centered near the Four Corners and another near Bermuda. This weakness in the height field on the periphery of the offshore high will result in a more typical summertime pattern with isolated pop- up showers and storms from Friday through Sunday. With that said, considerable dry air is depicted in forecast soundings on Friday and Saturday before another plume of moisture lifts northward on Sunday. Thus, expect activity to be more spotty and short-lived on Friday and Saturday with somewhat greater coverage on Sunday. Although the greater moisture remains in place into next week, the ridge is expected to build westward, introducing some subsidence into the picture, likely keeping coverage in the typical summertime isolated to widely scattered realm. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing heat and humidity is expected early next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. As ridging over the Atlantic builds westward in tandem with a persistent moisture plume, expect both temperatures and dew points to rise above normal. With highs reaching the mid 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s, afternoon heat index values should peak above 100F across parts of the area by Monday and potentially reach 105F in some areas by midweek. Temperatures and dew points will be refined in future forecasts. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered mainly light showers are expected to continue lifting northward from coastal SC through this afternoon, with no greater impacts than brief MVFR vis possible at the SC terminals. Otherwise, a patch of MVFR cigs is shifting through the area and should move out of KFLO by 20Z, if not sooner. Lastly, PROB30 groups were maintained concerning the possibility of pop-up showers or storms across the inland terminals this afternoon as filtered sunshine continues, although confidence is low to moderate on anything managing to develop given the continued stream of dense cirrus from the south. Expect any convection to gradually dissipate after sunset with prevailing VFR expected this evening into the overnight. Another round of nocturnal showers and isolated storms is expected late in the night, impacting the coastal terminals with passing showers and transient vis/cig restrictions down to MVFR or IFR. Meanwhile, at inland terminals, calm winds and mostly clear skies are expected to yield an environment favorable for fog formation, particularly at KFLO. One limiting factor will be how much high cloudiness streams in from the east due to the anticipated coastal showers and storms, but with calm winds most of the night and moist soils from recent rainfall, conditions look prime for fog and the dense fog observed in the Midlands this morning suggests the category could be lower than what is currently advertised. Otherwise, expect a return to VFR inland between 12-14Z depending on the severity of any fog and density of high clouds while coastal showers continue through the morning before clearing up around midday. Extended Forecast... Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or stratus each day. && .MARINE... Tonight through Sunday... Bermuda high pressure will maintain a generally southerly wind between 5-15 kts across the waters through Sunday. Seas generally hold in the 2-3 ft range with a period of 4 ft seas affecting the 20-60nmi zone between Friday midday through Saturday afternoon. A persistent southeasterly swell is expected to be the primary contributor to the wave spectrum with a period around 7-8 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW AVIATION...ABW MARINE...ABW