313
FXUS62 KILM 202306
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
706 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviationa discussion updated and heat advisory has been allowed
to expire.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot weather continues through the first half of this week with
additional Heat Advisories possible.

2) Best chances for rain arrive with a strong cold front during mid
to late week, including a risk for strong thunderstorms and flash
flooding.

3) A period of enhanced winds and seas will exist through
midweek as a stronger cold front drops down from the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot weather continues through Wednesday with
additional Heat Advisories possible.

The region will remain sandwiched between mid-upper troughing to the
north and the closed mid-upper low associated with T.D Two to the
south, leaving a weak ridge axis in between. Temperatures in the low-
mid troposphere are forecast to hold at similar levels to those
observed over the weekend, supporting continued above-normal
temperatures and heat indices breaching 100F. The extent of
cloudiness and showers/storms will affect whether some areas reach
heat indices of 105F, but it appears additional Heat Advisories are
possible until the next front comes down mid to late week.
Until then, coverage of showers/storms should remain isolated
through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Best chances for rain arrive with a strong cold
front during mid to late week, including a risk for strong
thunderstorms and flash flooding.

The stalled front will continue to lift back to the north
leaving the threat of isolated to widely scattered pop-up
showers and storms through Wed. Any stronger storms will mainly
remain north of the local area as the front lifts north, with the
focus of any convection along the sea breeze and any
convergence zones that happen to form inland. An isolated
strong to damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out if a storm can
take advantage of the steep low-level lapse rates combined with
a heavy, water-loaded downdraft. Something to watch is the
progression of showers and storms to the north, which could send
outflow into our northern tier of counties (Pender through
Marlboro) and produce areas of heavy showers and storms through
late day. Tuesday is looking drier with only isolated convection
at the most.

As troughing becomes reinforced over the eastern CONUS during
midweek, a stronger cold front is progged to push southward during
the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. While guidance tools have slowed
down the frontal progression and suggest Wednesday will be another
hot and mostly dry day with isolated pop-up showers and storms, the
incoming front is likely to enhance precip coverage into the
scattered to numerous realm when it does arrive, which could be over
Wednesday night into Thursday.

How far south this front reaches before stalling, and when this
occurs, still carries low confidence as guidance tools remain
mixed with respect to its position, so this will need to be
monitored as shower and storm coverage could be enhanced through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend if the front is
stalled along the coast as opposed to further offshore over the
Gulf Stream.

In addition, this front is expected to bring a risk for isolated
thunderstorms with strong to locally damaging wind gusts as wind
shear increases to 15-25 kts on Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps the
more notable threat is for flash flooding from heavy storms
backbuilding and/or tracking over the same area multiple times.
The flash flooding threat will persist if the front stalls along
or just inland of the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A period of enhanced winds and seas will exist
through midweek as a stronger cold front drops down from the
north.

See marine discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Storm coverage and strength has been gradually decreasing during
the last hour and this trend will continue, likely at a quicker
pace. The loss of diurnal instability will allow for more stable
conditions to develop across the area. Winds will remain
sufficient overnight to prevent fog development and limited boundary
layer moisture will prevent stratus. VFR will dominate once the
few lingering evening showers come to an end in the next hour
or so.any widespread

Scattered afternoon and evening storms will be possible again on
Tuesday, but coverage will once again be limited by an overall
unfavorable environment. Brief IFR/MVFR will be possible with
any storms which will be possible at any terminal. Strong
southwest winds will develop with potential for gusts around 30
kt along the coast by midday and in excess of 20 kt inland in
the afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Potential for MVFR/IFR from storms will
gradually increase beginning Wednesday and remain possible
through Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Monday night through Saturday...Steady south to southwest winds
are expected through midweek with daily enhancements nearshore
due to the sea breeze. An approaching cold front will help
tighten the pressure gradient from Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, resulting in the issuance of a Small Craft
Advisory with winds and seas firmly above criteria. Winds
diminish overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front
drifts in from the north and stalls near or over the waters,
resulting in low confidence regarding the wind direction on
Friday pending the location of the front.

Seas down around 2 to 4 ft will rise to 4 to 6 ft by late
Tuesday, remaining through late Wednesday. Seas will diminish
to 2 to 4 ft through Thursday as winds weaken. Marine conditions
should remain below any thresholds with lower winds and seas as
cold front remains in vicinity.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Wednesday
 for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...RGZ