957
FXUS62 KILM 222358
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
758 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures and thunderstorm chances will increase over the
next few days. A weak front will stall across the eastern
Carolinas Tuesday, but should return inland Wednesday. Typical
summertime weather is expected much of the coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Spotty showers with localized heavy rain have dissipated along
the coast but a few continue inland across Lumberton and the Pee
Dee region. These should quickly dry up this evening as the
boundary layer stabilizes. Speed convergence within humid
onshore wind at the coast has resulted in some low
stratocumulus which may continue overnight.

The biggest change with this forecast update was adjusting
forecast low temps up 1-2 degrees, especially along the coast,
where at least a few mph of onshore wind should continue through
daybreak. A new wave of showers associated with tropical
disturbance 91L may reach Georgetown and parts of the Grand
Strand before 8 AM Sunday and I`ve nudged forecast PoPs up 10
percent in this area very late tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail as a weak tropical disturbance
near the GA coast slowly shifts northward and weakens. Lingering
showers/isolated storms this evening will end due to loss of diurnal
heating but additional showers could impact the coast late tonight
where the best moisture convergence should occur. Increasing low-
level winds should prevent much fog tonight but models suggest some
could develop inland, especially in NC where low clouds are more
likely. Coastal showers should transition inland Sunday with even a
few rumbles of thunder possible. Severe storms are not expected but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to minor
flooding.

Lows tonight should be a bit above normal, generally in the lower to
mid 70s except upper 70s at the coast. Highs Sunday should be close
to normal near the coast but a bit above normal inland, ranging from
the mid to upper 80s at the coast to lower to mid 90s inland.
Although there is some uncertainty regarding how much dewpoints
lower during the day, we think max heat indices will mostly fall
below our Heat Advisory levels of 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level trough and attendant cold front will move
across Monday with expected good coverage of showers and
thunderstorms late in the day. Still unsure of severe potential but
with the trough some decent shear should be available along with
good instability. Tuesday should be drier but can`t rule out
isolated activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Decent chance for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday via decent agreement with the global guidance.
This as another cold front/mid level trough combination move across.
BEyond this nothing really special or noteworthy with temperatures
in expected ranges.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Inland convective showers should quickly dissipate with little
potential impact at KFLO or KLBT. Along the coast, humid onshore
winds are helping develop low stratocumulus clouds along the
coast which have a low-to-moderate potential for occasional
MVFR ceilings at KMYR and KCRE this evening and overnight. As
this humid air moves inland, there is a moderate-to-high
potential for MVFR ceilings to develop at KFLO and KLBT after
08z Sunday. These ceilings should lift above 3000 feet AGL
between 13-15z Sunday morning.

The remnant swirl from tropical disturbance 91L will move north
along the coast Sunday, adding to shower and thunderstorm
potential. Chances of convective impacts are highest along the
coast during the morning between 12-17z, shifting inland between
17-22z.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...
The central Carolina waters will remain between
Atlantic high pressure to the east and an inland trough. Although
winds/seas will increase a bit Sunday due to the increasing pressure
gradient we don`t expect the need for a Small Craft Advisory.

Sunday Night through Thursday...
Expect a period of stronger southwest winds Monday in a
range of 15-20 knots ahead of a cold front. A brief period of weak
offshore winds early Tuesday will be followed by a typical summer
pattern of south to southeast winds. Significant seas of 2-4 feet
can be expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is in effect
today for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Moderate rip
current risk across Horry and Georgetown County Beaches. Brunswick
County Beaches should see weak rip current activity today. The
elevated rip current activity will be aided by the 8+ second
period onshore waves and the enhanced tidal range due to the
current full moon. Wind speeds will not be as strong like the
past several days, and as a result could see weak to possibly
moderate longshore currents from the southerly winds this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...