698
FXUS62 KILM 270626
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
226 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisories issued for all beaches and for the
Lower Cape Fear River. Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs.
Key messages condensed although forecast thinking has not
changed significantly.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal
flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor
coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions.

High pressure remains centered north of the area today with the
gradient in a more relaxed state compared to recent days. However,
the duration of decreased winds will be brief. Reinforcing high
builds down the coast Wed into Thu, bringing another surge in
northeast winds as the gradient tightens. Lack of any surface
low will prevent strong, gusty winds, but northeast flow will
be strong enough to cause several issues. The potential for
strong, dangerous rip currents remains elevated through the end
of the week along with the potential strong longshore currents
for east facing beaches. For marine implications see the marine
section.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with
prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along
the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the
morning high tides. An advisory has been issued for the beaches
and the Lower Cape Fear River for this morning.

As far as sensible weather goes, ridging aloft and high pressure at
the surface will keep the region dry, but brezzy. Midweek there
will be an increase in low level moisture, leading to an
increase in cloud cover. Temperatures near to slightly below
normal today and tonight turn slightly above normal Wed through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR continues with light and variable to calm winds through
daybreak. North winds under 10 kt develop by mid-morning with
coastal terminals seeing a weak late afternoon sea breeze.

Extended outlook: Low ceilings possible around daybreak
Wednesday, especially inland. High potential for MVFR and
possibly IFR for LBT/FLO. Otherwise VFR with gusty NE winds
at times, especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines currently active, although would expect to
see another Small Craft Advisory issued later today starting
Wed. Northeast flow continues today, but gradient has weakened,
allowing lower wind speeds. Seas continue falling and are now
under 6 ft within 20 NM. High pressure to the north is
reinforced Wed into Thu, leading to an increase in northeast
flow. The lack of any notable low pressure system will keep
speeds under 25 kt, barely touching 20 kt Wed and Thu. However,
the extended duration of the enhanced northeast flow, on top of
an already elevated sea state (easterly swell 4-5 ft), will
push seas over 6 ft Wed and Thu. Gradient starts to relax late
Thu with winds and seas gradually decreasing Thu night into Fri.
Looks like a weekend without headlines, although conditions are
still likely to be somewhat treacherous with northeast winds
15-20 kt and seas 4-5 ft - a mix of swell and wind wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ108.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III