Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
417
FNUS52 KILM 031830
FWFILM
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.DISCUSSION...
A front will stall in the region this weekend, maintaining above
normal temperatures with high humidity and bringing increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. The front should push
offshore Sunday night or Monday, followed by cooler, drier
weather as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern U.S.
Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.
NCZ105>110-040730-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate,
Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach,
Southport, and Sunset Beach
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
Tonight Sun Sun Night Mon
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms Showers
Chance Precip (%) 70 80 80 80
Chance Thunder (%) 50 50 50 0
Min/Max Temp 67 80 65 75
Max/Min RH (%) 100 85 100 85
Wind 20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Wind 20ft/Late (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var N 5
Precip Amount 0.49 0.70 0.58 0.31
Precip Duration 6 11 10 7
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing 6 PM
Inversion(Temp/Time) 1900 74/1000 2000 70/0900
Dispersion Very Poor Very Poor
DSI 2 1
Mixing Hgt (ft) 2000 2400
Transport Wind (mph) SW 10 N 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 20000 24000
ADI Early 3 Very Poor 16 Gen Poor 4 Very Poor 16 Gen Poor
ADI Late 4 Very Poor 20 Gen Poor 3 Very Poor 22 Fair
Max LVORI Early 9 9 9 9
Max LVORI Late 9 5 9 5
Min VSBY Early 6 Rain 3 Rain 4 Rain
Min VSBY Late 5 Rain 5 Rain 3 Rain
Turner Stability F C F D
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
59 percent. Northeast winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
90 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
64 percent. North winds around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
56 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum
RH 99 percent. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
58 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 64 percent. Northeast winds
around 5 mph.
$$
NCZ087-096-099-040730-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
Tonight Sun Sun Night Mon
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms Showers
Chance Precip (%) 80 70 80 60
Chance Thunder (%) 50 20 20 0
Min/Max Temp 66 80 65 76
Max/Min RH (%) 100 84 100 78
Wind 20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Wind 20ft/Late (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var N 4
Precip Amount 0.75 0.60 0.43 0.17
Precip Duration 9 7 9 3
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing 6 PM
Inversion(Temp/Time) 1900 72/1000 2000 67/0600
Dispersion Very Poor Very Poor
DSI 1 1
Mixing Hgt (ft) 2100 3300
Transport Wind (mph) W 8 NE 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 16800 33000
ADI Early 4 Very Poor 14 Gen Poor 3 Very Poor 17 Gen Poor
ADI Late 4 Very Poor 18 Gen Poor 3 Very Poor 23 Fair
Max LVORI Early 9 9 9 9
Max LVORI Late 9 5 9 5
Min VSBY Early 5 Rain 2 Rain 3 Rain
Min VSBY Late 3 Rain 4 Rain 2 Rain
Turner Stability F C F D
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Northeast winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
89 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
56 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum
RH 99 percent. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
49 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. Minimum RH 50 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 57 percent. Northeast winds
around 5 mph.
$$
SCZ054>056-058-059-040730-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews,
Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Red Hill, Loris, and Aynor
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
Tonight Sun Sun Night Mon
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms Tstms
Chance Precip (%) 60 80 90 80
Chance Thunder (%) 50 50 50 20
Min/Max Temp 69 82 66 75
Max/Min RH (%) 100 83 100 87
Wind 20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Wind 20ft/Late (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var NE 5
Precip Amount 0.37 0.60 0.70 0.51
Precip Duration 6 10 10 9
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 1900 75/1000 2000 70/0900
Dispersion Very Poor Very Poor
DSI 2 1
Mixing Hgt (ft) 2300 2000
Transport Wind (mph) SW 8 NE 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 18400 20000
ADI Early 4 Very Poor 14 Gen Poor 3 Very Poor 14 Gen Poor
ADI Late 3 Very Poor 19 Gen Poor 3 Very Poor 21 Fair
Max LVORI Early 9 9 9 9
Max LVORI Late 9 5 9 5
Min VSBY Early 6 Rain 4 Rain 3 Rain
Min VSBY Late 4 Rain 5 Rain 3 Rain
Turner Stability F C F D
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
58 percent. Northeast winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
89 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
62 percent. North winds around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
53 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
56 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 65 percent. Northeast winds
around 10 mph.
$$
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-040730-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
Tonight Sun Sun Night Mon
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms Showers
Chance Precip (%) 70 70 80 70
Chance Thunder (%) 50 20 20 0
Min/Max Temp 66 81 65 75
Max/Min RH (%) 100 85 100 80
Wind 20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Wind 20ft/Late (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var NE 4
Precip Amount 0.69 0.49 0.57 0.28
Precip Duration 7 5 9 6
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing 6 PM
Inversion(Temp/Time) 1900 72/1000 2000 69/1000
Dispersion Very Poor Very Poor
DSI 1 1
Mixing Hgt (ft) 2100 3000
Transport Wind (mph) NW 7 NE 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 14700 30000
ADI Early 4 Very Poor 11 Poor 3 Very Poor 17 Gen Poor
ADI Late 3 Very Poor 15 Gen Poor 3 Very Poor 22 Fair
Max LVORI Early 9 9 9 9
Max LVORI Late 9 6 9 5
Min VSBY Early 5 Rain 2 Rain 3 Rain
Min VSBY Late 2 Rain 4 Rain 3 Rain
Turner Stability F C F D
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Northeast winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
55 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum
RH 99 percent. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Light winds.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
50 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 58 percent. Northeast winds
around 5 mph.
$$
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation above normal.
$$
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE BURN CATEGORY VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
NOT USED 0 0 TO 14759
0 TO 17249 1 14760 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499 2 33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749 3 45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999 4 60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER 5 112000 OR GREATER
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND DISPERSION FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
STAGNANT NEAR CALM
CALM VERY POOR 2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH POOR 5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH FAIR 9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH GOOD GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE EXCELLENT
ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.
$$