616
FNUS72 KILM 301005
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for TNC Rocky Point...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
505 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on January 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Northeasterly flow this morning will transition to easterly flow
later today. Cool and dry conditions remain over the Carolinas
through Saturday. A significant winter storm is expected this
weekend followed by cold and dry weather next week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is None.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning.
Max mixing hgt......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (36849 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........2.
Max ADI.............45.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  13  18  34  54  61  42  39  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  43  46  48  49  50  50  49  47
RH..............57  50  47  46  45  46  48  50  55
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.7   7   8   9   10  10  10  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.4 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  9   10  10  12  12  14
Stability.......B   B   B   B   D   D   B   B   B
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   2   2   1   1   1
ADI.............11  19  34  36  26  26  45  41  44
Vrate mph-ft/1K.8   14  27  29  35  35  37  33  35
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...017 019 019 019 013 013 013 008 008

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain overnight. Slight chance of light sleet
                    after 3 am. Slight chance of snow after 3 am.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Min mixing hgt......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 18 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (9529 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Min ADI.............9.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     65     81     92     100    100
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   SNOW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      10     0
Temp............44     41     39     37     34     32
RH..............61     67     71     69     71     84
20 ft wind......E 5    NE 5   NE 6   NE 6   N 6    N 6
20 ft wind gust.9      10     10     10     10     12
Mix hgt (ft)....700    600    1100   1100   1100   1300
Transport wind..E 14   NE 17  NE 17  NE 16  NE 17  NE 18
Stability.......E      E      E      E      D      D
LVORI...........3      3      3      3      3      4
ADI.............9      12     12     11     15     16
Vrate mph-ft/1K.10     10     19     18     19     24
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.08  30.08  30.06  30.06  30.02  30.00

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of snow and
                    light sleet in the morning, then snow in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 32.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 10 mph with gusts to around 19
                    mph.
Max mixing hgt......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 16 to 21 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (38052 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............38.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........100    95     86     89     92     94
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............30     29     32     32     30     29
RH..............86     89     80     77     81     82
20 ft wind......N 7    N 7    N 8    N 8    N 10   N 10
20 ft wind gust.13     14     15     15     17     18
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   1400   1500   1700   1800   1800
Transport wind..NE 18  N 16   N 17   N 20   N 20   N 21
Stability.......D      D      D      D      D      D
LVORI...........4      4      3      3      3      3
ADI.............31     26     28     33     36     38
Vrate mph-ft/1K.29     23     26     32     36     38
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.00  30.00  30.00  30.00  29.94  29.88

$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Mackenzie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2601343.0/ILM
.DELDT 01/30/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL c.f.mackenzie@tnc.org