Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
437
FNUS72 KILM 160935
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Green Swamp Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
535 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Warm and humid weather conditions are expected today. Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms may develop with spotty but soaking rainfall
possible. Today`s seabreeze front should move across the burn
site between noon and 1:00 pm and will be accompanied by a shift from
southwest to south winds.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
showers late in the morning. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Max mixing hgt......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 20 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (57082 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............69.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35 31 33 34 33 44 51 52 58
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 10 20 30 40 40 40 40
Temp............81 84 86 88 89 88 88 88 86
RH..............77 72 67 64 62 63 65 66 70
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9
20 FT wind gust.11 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.3
Transp wind dir.W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.16 16 17 17 16 16 17 17 20
Stability.......B B B B B B C C C
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............40 50 65 67 68 69 57 53 54
Vrate mph-ft/1K.31 39 53 55 55 57 55 49 46
Ventrate Cat....PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...000 000 001 001 001 000 000 000 996
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 20 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (6159 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............9.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........46 54 39 49 53 47 47 46 54 54 61 57
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).40 30 30 30 30 20 30 30 30 30 20 20
Temp............85 83 82 80 79 79 79 79 78 77 77 77
RH..............72 75 78 82 85 86 86 87 89 91 90 92
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.14 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.20 18 18 17 16 17 14 15 14 14 14 14
Stability.......D D E D D D D E E E E E
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
ADI.............22 21 12 15 14 15 12 10 9 9 9 9
Vrate mph-ft/1K.38 25 14 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 6 6
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...996 996 995 995 995 997 997 997 996 996 996 996
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Max mixing hgt......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (63041 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............76.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40 46 47 37 34 43 43 45 47 41 36 33
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 20 20
Temp............76 77 79 83 86 88 89 89 89 89 89 88
RH..............94 91 88 80 72 68 68 66 66 67 68 69
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9
20 FT wind gust.10 10 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.15 15 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 20 21
Stability.......B B B B B B B B B B B B
LVORI...........5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............16 16 31 43 61 71 74 75 76 72 66 59
Vrate mph-ft/1K.8 7 24 34 49 58 61 62 63 59 53 46
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD FR FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...996 996 999 999 999 001 001 001 997 997 997 996
$$
Forecaster...Armstrong
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516034.0/ILM
.DELDT 06/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org