Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FNUS72 KILM 160756
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Orton Creek Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
S to SSW winds may start out around 6-8 mph during ignition time, but within an hour
or so these should quickly increase to 11-13 mph sustained with gusts 18-20 mph.
Showers/storms will be hit or miss as they come onshore through the day, more isolated
during the morning hours and increasing to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon
with the sea breeze. Rain could be heavy at times. Rain chances should gradually
decrease towards the evening hours with tonight being mostly dry.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max mixing hgt......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 20 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (61606 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............68.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53 51 45 48 57 60 43 50 48 47
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH CHC SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).30 30 20 20 40 40 20 30 20 20
Temp............81 84 85 87 88 88 88 88 88 87
RH..............82 76 72 69 67 67 66 68 67 69
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S SW S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.10 11 12 12 14 14 14 15 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 2.2 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.7
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.16 17 18 20 18 18 18 20 18 20
Stability.......C C B B C C C C C C
LVORI...........3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............25 46 67 68 61 59 61 64 55 59
Vrate mph-ft/1K.20 38 54 55 58 55 58 62 50 52
Ventrate Cat....PR PR FR FR FR FR FR GD FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...011 011 011 012 012 012 009 009 009 006
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 78.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 20 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (7250 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............12.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........47 51 49 50 47 54 38 41 38 57 52 40
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).20 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 0
Temp............86 85 83 82 81 81 81 80 80 80 80 79
RH..............72 74 81 81 85 85 86 87 86 88 87 90
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.18 18 18 20 17 18 18 20 18 18 17 17
Stability.......D D D D D D E D E D D E
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
ADI.............25 21 16 18 15 16 12 18 12 16 15 12
Vrate mph-ft/1K.45 29 15 8 7 9 9 9 8 9 8 9
Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...006 006 007 007 007 009 009 009 007 007 007 009
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Max mixing hgt......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 22 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (73445 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............82.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43 47 47 28 25 21 19 18 16 17 19 20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............79 79 81 85 86 87 88 89 90 90 89 88
RH..............90 91 86 78 75 72 69 67 66 66 67 69
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 13 14 14 15 17 17 18 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.17 16 18 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Stability.......B B B B B B C C C C C C
LVORI...........4 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............18 17 40 62 72 82 74 74 75 71 68 64
Vrate mph-ft/1K.8 8 31 49 58 67 72 73 73 68 62 56
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD FR
Sfc pres (in)...009 009 013 013 013 013 013 013 009 009 009 008
$$
Forecaster...Warner
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2518077.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org