Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
988
FNUS72 KILM 270651
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Green Swamp Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
251 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Expect a seasonably warm day today with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with southeast NC seeing
the better coverage. Conditions will heat up Tue with Heat
Advisory thresholds likely to eclipse across portions of the
area. Relief will come with the next CFP early Wed and expect
better shower and tstorm chances and coverage late Tue into early
Wed morning. Mostly dry weather to follow Wed afternoon thru Fri
with temperatures back to near normal.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest 5 to 8 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (23004 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............29.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34 44 34 42 42 56 59 57 55 57
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
Chc of thdr (%).0 10 10 10 20 20 40 40 30 30
Temp............76 80 83 86 87 89 89 88 89 87
RH..............90 81 74 68 65 62 62 64 63 67
20 FT wind dir..N N SE S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust. 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 3
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.5 2.7 3.6 4.0 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.1
Transp wind dir.SE SW SW W W W SW SW S S
Transp wind spd.5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8
Stability.......A A A A A A B B B B
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3
ADI.............4 9 20 21 29 28 25 22 28 21
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 7 15 17 23 22 20 18 22 17
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...979 979 979 979 979 979 976 976 976 974
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph shifting to the west around 7
mph early in the morning.
Min vent rate.......Poor (2509 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........8.
Min ADI.............3.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........55 46 41 41 41 47 33 27 27 41 39 31
Weather cov.....CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH
Chc of thdr (%).30 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............86 85 81 79 78 77 76 76 76 74 74 74
RH..............68 71 83 89 91 93 92 94 94 97 96 97
20 FT wind dir..S S S S N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT wind gust.3 2 2 1 1
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW W
Transp wind spd.8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7
Stability.......F F F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8
ADI.............4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.15 14 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...974 974 975 975 975 976 976 976 972 972 972 970
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph late
in the morning.
Max mixing hgt......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to
17 mph in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Good (66080 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............58.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31 33 23 35 27 46 44 51 63 57 58 51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............73 74 76 80 85 88 91 92 92 93 92 91
RH..............100 99 98 90 77 69 61 58 56 56 59 61
20 FT wind dir..N N N W SW SW SW SW SW S S S
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 1 3 5 6 6 8 8 9 9
20 FT wind gust. 1 1 2 5 7 9 12 13 14 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.5 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.4 3.3 2.9
Transp wind dir.W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW S S
Transp wind spd.7 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 13 15 17 17
Stability.......A A A A A A A B C C D C
LVORI...........8 9 8 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............7 6 7 11 22 42 50 56 52 58 43 55
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 3 4 9 17 32 40 48 61 66 56 51
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR GD GD FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...970 970 971 971 971 971 971 971 966 966 966 962
$$
Forecaster...Hoehler
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618342.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/27/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org