910
FNUS72 KILM 171206
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Green Swamp Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
806 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
A weak ridge of high pressure over the inland Carolinas will shift
towards the coast today. Light surface winds will be controlled
by land/seabreeze with northerly winds shifting to a more easterly
onshore direction this afternoon as sea breeze pushes inland.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then becoming
                    light late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 12 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (42402 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Max ADI.............54.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  56  46  28  9   4   5   2   2   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............73  76  79  82  86  88  90  92  91  89
RH..............98  91  80  71  61  55  51  48  50  52
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.8   8   9   9   8   8   9   8   8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.2
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  12  10  10  12  10  10  9   8   8
Stability.......B   B   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A
LVORI...........7   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............11  17  21  26  37  44  54  52  47  43
Vrate mph-ft/1K.8   13  16  20  28  34  42  41  37  34
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...993 993 993 994 994 994 991 991 991 987

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 7 mph shifting to the south 6
                    to 8 mph in the evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the west around 7 mph after 3 am.
Min vent rate.......Poor (2720 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Min ADI.............3.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   2   2   4   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............88  84  80  79  77  76  75  74  74  73  73  72
RH..............56  66  74  78  83  87  87  90  90  92  93  93
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.6   5   5   4   3   3   3   2   2   3   3   4
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   6   8   7   8   7   7   8   7   7   7   7
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   3   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.............3   3   4   3   4   3   3   4   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.16  6   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...987 987 986 986 986 989 989 989 986 986 986 985

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Max mixing hgt......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 10 mph shifting to the north 7
                    to 8 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting
                    to the northeast around 8 mph late in the
                    afternoon shifting to the south 9 to 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Fair (45137 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............55.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   6   13  20  13  6   10  13  17  20  23  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............72  72  74  78  82  86  88  90  92  91  90  89
RH..............96  94  93  83  74  65  62  59  56  58  59  61
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  W   W   W   NW  W   SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   7   8   8   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.5 5.5 6.5 5.2 3.8 2.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   NE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.9   8   9   9   10  8   8   8   7   8   9   10
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A
LVORI...........6   6   6   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............9   8   9   12  25  32  46  51  55  52  45  33
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4   3   3   10  19  25  37  41  45  42  35  26
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...985 985 989 989 989 989 989 989 987 987 987 986

$$
Forecaster...Zouzias
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520073.0/ILM
.DELDT 08/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org