Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
214
FNUS72 KILM 270228
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Green Swamp Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1028 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Side Note: This output from this Spot Forecast is based on model
output up to 12 hours old. Will have a new model run with updated
fire weather elements by 3am edt Mon. Will execute and issue you
an updated Spot Forecast by then.
The synopsis for the upcoming week. Expect a seasonably warm
start with isolated to scattered thunderstorms Mon afternoon
and evening. With the next approaching front, expect better
rainfall chances and coverage late Tue into Wed morning. Mostly
dry weather to follow daytime Wed through Fri.
Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (33407 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............40.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34 30 30 38 42 55 60 61 64 58
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 10 10 20 20 40 40 40 40
Temp............75 79 82 85 86 88 89 89 88 90
RH..............96 84 75 69 65 63 60 61 62 59
20 FT wind dir..N S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.5 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.5 4.1 3.2 3.0 2.7
Transp wind dir.S S S S SW S S S S S
Transp wind spd.7 7 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 12
Stability.......A A A A A A B B B C
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............8 13 20 25 28 36 40 36 30 34
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 10 15 19 22 28 33 29 24 31
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...978 978 978 979 979 979 975 975 975 972
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 9 mph shifting to the west around 8
mph after 3 am.
Min vent rate.......Poor (2831 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Min ADI.............3.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56 53 24 36 37 38 14 24 27 41 46 31
Weather cov.....CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).30 30 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............86 85 83 79 78 77 77 76 76 75 75 74
RH..............65 68 73 83 86 90 90 91 91 94 94 94
20 FT wind dir..S S SE S S SE N N N N N SW
20 FT wind spd..2 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
20 FT wind gust.4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW W
Transp wind spd.8 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8
Stability.......F F F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
ADI.............4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.18 16 7 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...972 972 974 974 974 975 975 975 972 972 972 971
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 16 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (62447 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............73.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44 41 38 52 39 26 30 34 38 43 48 53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
Temp............74 75 77 80 84 88 90 92 93 93 92 91
RH..............97 96 94 87 74 63 58 55 54 54 56 60
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT wind spd..1 1 1 2 3 3 5 6 7 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust. 3 5 7 9 11 13 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 3.9 3.3 2.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW S
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 10 10 10 12 13 14 15 15 16
Stability.......A A A A A A A B B B B C
LVORI...........6 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............7 7 7 19 30 40 52 61 73 69 62 49
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 3 4 14 23 31 40 51 62 57 51 44
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD FR FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...971 971 973 973 973 972 972 972 967 967 967 963
$$
Forecaster...Hoehler
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618342.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/27/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org