781
FNUS72 KILM 061152
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
752 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Highest rain chances for the burn site will be through the afternoon
as coastal showers shift inland through the day. Winds will be out
of the south at ~10 mph with brief variable, gusty winds from afternoon
showers and storms.

Fog potential for tonight is Low near the coast and Moderate
inland.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of thunder...50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Max mixing hgt......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (35145 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............37.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  45  51  56  61  67  70  64  59  54
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  30  30  30  50  40  30  20
Temp............78  82  85  88  89  88  88  88  89  88
RH..............96  83  75  68  65  65  65  63  62  64
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   2   3   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.    2   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   10  10  10  9   10  12  12
Stability.......A   A   B   B   C   C   C   C   C   C
LVORI...........6   4   3   3   3   1   3   1   1   1
ADI.............8   17  27  35  32  34  28  32  37  35
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   13  21  28  29  33  25  29  35  31
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...013 013 013 015 015 015 017 017 017 012

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (2859 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Min ADI.............3.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50  46  42  33  24  16  17  18  18  17  16  15
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of thdr (%).20  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............86  84  82  79  77  76  75  75  74  74  73  73
RH..............68  72  77  85  91  95  98  99  100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   2   2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind gust.7   7   6   5   4   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  10  12  10  10  10  9   9   7   7   7   7
Stability.......E   E   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   3   4   5   6   7   9   9   9   9   9   9
ADI.............8   7   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.19  14  10  6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...012 012 013 013 013 016 016 016 016 016 016 015

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through the day. Chance of
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Max mixing hgt......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (56889 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............72.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  23  27  32  36  48  51  48  49  44  40  36
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20  20  10  0   10
Temp............73  74  77  81  84  88  89  90  90  91  91  90
RH..............100 100 98  87  79  71  67  65  64  61  60  61
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   S   S   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   1   2   3   3   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.            2   3   5   6   7   8   8   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.7   6   7   9   9   9   9   9   10  12  12  13
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   A   C   A   A   A   A   A
LVORI...........8   9   8   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............7   6   7   21  31  38  33  45  49  59  61  72
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   2   5   17  24  30  34  35  38  47  48  57
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR
Sfc pres (in)...015 015 018 018 018 021 021 021 018 018 018 012

$$
Forecaster...Warner
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2619066.0/ILM
.DELDT 08/06/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org