548
FNUS72 KILM 162056
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Lake Road Fire...NC Forest Service
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
456 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Conditions should begin to improve around sunset, but if the
wildfire produces sufficient mixing this evening and overnight,
gusts will increase and RH will lower. The forecast assumes some
mixing will occur tonight due to the fire. A weak low level jet
could produce gusts up to 20 mph after 9 PM, down to 15 mph by 5
AM. The jet will be located at around 700-1500 feet AGL. RH will
recover this evening, but conditional mixing could keep RH much
lower than typical nighttime conditions. Gusts have been increased
to reflect the stronger sea breeze this afternoon. RH will in the
upper 30s and 40s until sunset.

Bermuda High pressure will dominate through the middle of next
week, with increasing RH but no rain in store until Thursday. Rain
chances will then persist into the weekend.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 9 mph.
Max mixing hgt......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (74489 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........1.
Max ADI.............59.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.

TIME (EDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0
Chc of ltng (%).0
Temp............81
RH..............38
20 FT wind dir..S
20 FT wind spd..9
20 FT wind gust.17
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4
Transp wind dir.S
Transp wind spd.14
LVORI...........1
ADI.............59
Vrate mph-ft/1K.74
Ventrate Cat....GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (5064 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............5.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   2   7   14  20  11  11  22  34  36  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............80  77  72  70  68  65  64  63  62  61  61  61
RH..............42  48  56  62  68  70  72  73  74  76  76  76
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   8   7   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  14  12  10  10  11  11  11  12  12  12  11
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  14  14  14  14  13  13  13  12  12
LVORI...........2   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   7
ADI.............9   10  10  6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.57  32  7   7   7   7   6   5   6   6   5   5
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 13 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (57648 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............71.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  45  36  52  39  45  56  49  36  42  29  31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............61  63  67  72  77  81  84  86  88  89  89  89
RH..............96  95  92  85  74  67  59  52  48  47  46  48
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   6
20 FT wind gust.4   5   4   5   6   7   7   7   7   7   8   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.9 3.5 4.2 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.10  9   12  13  13  10  9   9   8   9   10  12
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............10  9   12  28  48  46  46  59  55  66  71  66
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   4   10  22  37  36  39  48  45  53  58  58
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Christopher Emerson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613828.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/16/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathon.paluck@ncagr.gov