Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
806
FNUS72 KILM 280804
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
404 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions are expected today with light winds this
morning, increasing this afternoon. Wind gusts late this
afternoon could reach 20-25 mph. Storms are possible late this
afternoon into this evening as an established line of storms
approaches from the NW. Quieter conditions follow a cold front on
Wednesday. Mostly dry weather continues late this week.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph with
gusts to around 18 mph late in the morning.
Max mixing hgt......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 22
mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Good (100865 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........8.
Max ADI.............98.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29 31 34 36 39 50 58 52 48 25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
Temp............75 79 83 87 90 91 93 94 94 94
RH..............100 88 79 69 63 58 55 54 55 55
20 FT wind dir..N SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..0 1 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 8
20 FT wind gust.2 4 6 9 11 13 15 16 19 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.1 4.9 5.4 5.5 4.2 3.3
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.8 9 12 13 13 14 17 18 20 22
Stability.......A A A A A B C C B B
LVORI...........8 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............8 13 28 48 66 79 74 79 98 89
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5 10 22 37 52 68 94 101 82 73
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD VGD GD GD
Sfc pres (in)...975 975 975 971 971 971 969 969 969 959
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (20-30 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely.
Chance of thunder...50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around
19 mph becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
overnight.
Min mixing hgt......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph shifting to the west
around 10 mph early in the morning.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4826 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........37 41 54 63 79 85 76 64 52 25 33 12
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 30 40 50 40 40 40 20 10 10 0
Temp............92 90 87 83 82 81 80 79 77 76 75 75
RH..............61 66 74 84 87 89 90 91 93 95 96 96
20 FT wind dir..SW S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
20 FT wind spd..8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3
20 FT wind gust.19 17 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW W SW W W W W
Transp wind spd.21 21 18 18 16 14 14 13 13 13 12 10
Stability.......E D D D D D E E F F F F
LVORI...........2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7
ADI.............14 23 16 16 14 12 9 8 6 6 5 5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.46 38 22 18 9 8 10 7 10 10 6 5
Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...959 959 958 958 958 959 959 959 957 957 957 960
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (92216 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Max ADI.............102.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9 7 7 14 9 16 29 21 27 17 19 27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............74 74 76 79 83 86 89 90 91 92 92 92
RH..............99 100 94 86 76 70 62 57 53 49 49 48
20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.1 6.2
Transp wind dir.NW NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 15
Stability.......A A A A A A A A A A A B
LVORI...........7 7 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............10 10 21 31 43 57 75 86 96 100 88 102
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5 6 16 24 33 44 59 69 78 80 71 92
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD GD
Sfc pres (in)...960 960 962 962 962 965 965 965 963 963 963 961
$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618475.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/28/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org