881
FNUS72 KILM 102011
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Sunset Road Fire...NC Forest Service
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
411 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will stall south of the area this weekend, maintaining
unsettled weather near the coast through Sunday. An area of low
pressure over the Southeast early next week, leading to an
extended period of rainy conditions.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 7 mph.
Max mixing hgt......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (29000 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........2.
Max ADI.............35.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  90
Weather cov.....CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).10  10
Chc of ltng (%).10  10
Temp............70  70
RH..............49  51
20 FT wind dir..E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   6
20 FT wind gust.12  11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.6
Transp wind dir.E   E
Transp wind spd.14  14
Stability.......C   C
LVORI...........1   2
ADI.............35  28
Vrate mph-ft/1K.29  21
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...013 012

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers
                    through the night. Chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    evening.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 14 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (5317 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............8.
Chance of lightning.40 percent.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........92  93  92  90  88  86  88  89  90  92  94  96
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20  40
Chc of ltng (%).10  10  0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20  40
Temp............69  68  68  67  67  67  67  67  67  67  66  67
RH..............55  60  65  70  74  75  79  83  87  89  91  91
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  9   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  14  13  14  13  13  13  14  14  14  13  14
Stability.......E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.............9   9   8   9   8   8   8   9   9   9   8   9
Vrate mph-ft/1K.17  10  6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   7
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...012 012 013 013 013 016 016 016 015 015 015 014

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of thunder...50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max mixing hgt......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 16 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (28742 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............36.
Chance of lightning.50 percent.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........96     96     96     95     93     90
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of thdr (%).40     40     40     40     50     50
Chc of ltng (%).40     40     40     40     50     50
Temp............67     68     70     72     72     72
RH..............92     92     85     82     83     83
20 ft wind......E 5    E 5    SE 6   SE 6   SE 7   E 6
20 ft wind gust.8      9      10     11     12     11
Mix hgt (ft)....500    900    1200   1600   1600   1300
Transport wind..E 14   E 14   SE 14  SE 14  SE 15  SE 12
Stability.......C      C      C      C      C      C
LVORI...........5      5      4      3      3      4
ADI.............11     14     21     28     30     19
Vrate mph-ft/1K.7      12     16     22     24     15
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.14  30.18  30.18  30.22  30.21  30.21

$$
Forecaster...Keebler
Requested by...Dakota Paris
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2513529.3/ILM
.DELDT 05/10/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL austin.harriett@ncagr.gov,dakota.paris@ncagr.gov,ncfs.imt.plans@ncagr.gov