Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
639
FNUS72 KILM 081741
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Orton Creek Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
141 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Based on your latest observations, it appears the easterly winds
are advecting the sea breeze (along with some influence from the
lower Cape Fear River) more efficiently than anticipated. Clouds
may also be contributing to RH holding in the lower 60s. I have
increased RH slightly and provided an updated wind forecast. With
winds already out of the east, these should continue through this
evening. Temperatures holding steady in the lower 70s should
maintain a light sea breeze. The updated forecast should reflect
potential gusts assuming a burn is ongoing.
After a brief drying trend today, more showers and storms are
possible at times over the weekend into early next week before dry
air arrives again Tuesday or Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are
unlikely to be substantial.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming cloudy
(85-95 percent) then becoming partly sunny
(50-60 percent) then becoming mostly sunny
(20-30 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east
around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east 10
to 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (36053 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............44.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25 88 64 41 8 13 16 29 42 34 40 45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............55 55 55 59 63 65 68 68 69 71 70 70
RH..............96 94 94 85 69 61 58 54 51 49 50 52
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N NE NE NE E E E E
20 FT wind spd..5 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.7 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.5
Transp wind dir.N N N N N NE NE NE E E E E
Transp wind spd.13 13 15 15 13 12 10 10 10 10 12 12
Stability.......A A B B B B B B B B B B
LVORI...........5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............12 12 35 36 36 42 42 44 43 40 42 36
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 7 27 28 28 34 34 36 36 33 34 28
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...991 991 997 997 997 001 001 001 999 999 999 997
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 6 mph early in the
evening becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (3222 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Min ADI.............4.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51 60 69 69 69 69 71 73 74 78 82 86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............69 67 65 64 63 63 62 62 62 62 62 62
RH..............59 65 72 76 80 84 85 86 87 88 88 86
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE N SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..6 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.8 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8
Stability.......E E F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6
ADI.............7 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.21 20 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...997 997 997 997 997 000 000 000 996 996 996 994
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
and slight chance of thunderstorms through the
day.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 9 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the morning.
Max mixing hgt......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest 15
to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Fair (56832 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............61.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83 81 79 75 71 67 67 66 66 67 68 69
Weather cov..... CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).0 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............62 63 65 68 70 72 73 74 74 74 74 74
RH..............87 89 88 87 85 84 83 82 81 78 79 78
20 FT wind dir..SE SE S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..1 2 2 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.3 4 4 6 9 11 12 12 13 13 12 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.2
Transp wind dir.SE SE S S S S SW SW SW SW S SW
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 10 13 14 15 16 18 20 18 20
Stability.......B B B B B C C C C C C C
LVORI...........5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............7 7 7 17 34 40 44 49 59 61 49 52
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 3 4 13 27 35 38 44 55 57 41 43
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...994 994 996 996 996 996 996 996 993 993 993 989
$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613124.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/08/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org