Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
821
FNUS72 KILM 021133
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Shaken Creek Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
633 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EST on March 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Cool high pressure extends down from the north today, allowing for
northeasterly winds to stick around all day. As a result, temperatures
this afternoon will be much cooler than yesterday. Lower cloud
cover will also persist with little opportunity for clearing.
Temperatures will start to increase Tuesday as high pressure shifts
offshore, with low rain chances for the latter half of the week.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Max mixing hgt......2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 18 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (38852 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............29.
TIME (EST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83 81 78 76 78 79 81 83 84 85 89
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............44 46 48 50 51 52 53 53 53 54 52
RH..............98 94 90 86 86 85 84 83 82 81 82
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6
Transp wind dir.E NE E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.18 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 14 15
Stability.......D D D D D D D D D D D
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3
ADI.............29 28 28 27 26 26 27 27 27 29 20
Vrate mph-ft/1K.26 25 27 26 27 28 31 31 30 33 39
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...035 035 035 039 039 039 038 038 038 035 035
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
showers after 3 am.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 17 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (6340 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........8.
Min ADI.............4.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........93 96 96 95 94 94 93 92 91 90 89 85
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............51 50 49 48 47 47 47 47 46 46 45 45
RH..............84 86 87 87 88 89 90 91 93 95 97 99
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.16 17 17 16 16 14 13 12 12 9 8 9
Stability.......D D E E E E E E F F F B
LVORI...........4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8
ADI.............18 19 12 11 11 9 8 8 5 4 4 10
Vrate mph-ft/1K.24 24 22 21 20 17 15 13 13 8 6 7
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...035 040 040 040 041 041 041 037 037 037 036 036
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the morning, then slight
chance of rain.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds in the morning becoming east around
5 mph, then shifting to the southeast late in
the afternoon becoming light.
Max mixing hgt......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
around 7 mph in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (25203 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............27.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81 78 71 65 59 57 54 52 50 47 45 45
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............45 45 49 52 56 60 64 66 68 69 68 66
RH..............100 100 96 90 85 79 74 70 67 66 67 71
20 FT wind dir..N N N NE NE NE E E E SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..2 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 3
20 FT wind gust.7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.6
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE NE E E SE SE S S S
Transp wind spd.8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Stability.......B C C D D D D D B B B E
LVORI...........8 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............8 5 5 8 10 13 16 18 27 23 19 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4 4 5 6 8 13 19 25 22 19 15 11
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...036 038 038 038 040 040 040 034 034 034 032 032
$$
Forecaster...Boatman
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2604449.0/ILM
.DELDT 03/02/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org