Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
090 FXUS61 KILN 161233 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 833 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) More showers and thunderstorms will occur today. Locally heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms will be possible. 2) A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight into Monday with another cold front moving through Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Update... Additional showers and thunderstorms - scattered in coverage are expected to develop this aftn associated with another impulse moving into Indiana. With scattered coverage, some local heavy rain remains possible but the widespread heavy rain threat has diminished, Therefore, the flood watch has been allowed to expire. Previous... Thunderstorms developing in association with another impulse across Illinois and Missouri will move across the area this afternoon. This will also be in conjunctions with a pre-frontal trough. Precipitable water will still be high, but the warm cloud layer will not be quite as deep. So there may still be locally heavy rain, but the flooding threat appears to be more isolated. In addition, with moderate instability there could be some more robust storms that could produce strong to damaging winds. KEY MESSAGE 2) Low amplitude short wave will push a cold front into the area tonight. This will become elongated in a north northeast to south southwest orientation which will cause the boundary to be slow to move all of the way through the region. There will still be some potential for showers and storms until this front clears. Broad long wave trough will move into the Great Lakes towards mid week. This will push another cold front through late Wednesday into Wednesday night. There will be a bigger change in air mass with highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s for the latter part of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A period of MVFR ceilings is likely at the Columbus terminals to start the period. After that it will be VFR outside of and storms. Thunderstorms developing west of the region will move across the area between 16Z and 22Z. MVFR ceilings will likely develop late in the period. OUTLOOK..MVFR ceilings likely Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR/35 AVIATION...35