288
FXUS61 KILN 311724
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
124 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through Monday. Some
showers will develop mid week ahead of a cold front. Unseasonably
cool temperatures will return late in the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep dry northeast
flow across the region. Few cumulus that have developed north of I-70
will dissipate with the loss of heating. Lows will be not quite as
cool but still drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sprawling surface high will shift slightly eastwards during the
period with a weak low starting to develop in the mid South. This
will cause low level flow to veer slightly and a little more moisture
may start to advect in from the east, although not substantially so
in this time frame. The trend of temperatures being slightly warmer
than the previous day/night will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave moving through the mid Mississippi Valley at the
beginning of the period will drop southeast and round the base of
the persistent mean long wave over North America, passing south of
the region. At the surface, an inverted trough will develop into the
area with some moisture return focused along it. Cannot rule out a
few showers in southern counties on Tuesday with a somewhat better
chance of rain on Wednesday, generally south and east of I-71. But
even at that, trends in guidance have been less generous with
precipitation, which seems reasonable if primary mid level support
passes to the south.

Still watching an energetic system dropping out of the Canadian
Plains during midweek. Guidance trends have been to close off this
system a bit further north over Lake Superior or even remaining in
Ontario and then lifting northeast towards James Bay over the
weekend. This allows room for a second robust short wave to dive
down the back side of the trough and pivot across the lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley at the end of the week.

The net result will still be a substantial deepening of the long
wave and result in height anomalies of three sigma or greater
centered over the western Great Lakes. Those anomalies will then
relax quite a bit over the weekend once the secondary short wave
lifts out.

The initial system will drive a cold front southeast. There is some
spread in timing within the ensemble envelope although there have
been more members trending towards a daytime Thursday frontal
passage for the forecast area instead of late Wednesday night. This
should bring the greatest potential for measurable precipitation for
the week. If the somewhat later timing is realized, it is possible
that some instability could develop. At this point, the potential
for threats looks low, but some of the ML guidance does indicate a
low potential for severe storms over the southeast half of Ohio as
well as eastern Kentucky. The trailing short wave will bring a
secondary cold front. There could be some showers along that,
although probabilities are lower at this stage.

After a brief warm up, getting temperatures closer to normal early
in the period, there will be a return to unseasonably cool
conditions late in the week and especially over the weekend in the
wake of the secondary front.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northeast low level flow will keep a very dry airmass across the
region. Few cumulus during the early part of the period will
dissipate with the loss of heating. There could be some thin high
clouds late. Cannot completely rule out a brief visibility drop at
KLUK before 12Z, but the chance of that happening looks to be low at
this time.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...