853
FXUS61 KILN 030527
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1227 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on
Wednesday as an upper level low pressure system moves northeast
through the Upper Midwest.

2) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region
late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to more
seasonable temperatures and occasional chances for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
An upper level low pressure system will lift northeast across the
upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes tonight into
Wednesday. As it does, an embedded mid level short wave rotating
around the broader low will lift northeast into the mid Ohio Valley.
This will be accompanied by increasing southerly flow and a
developing 40-50 knot 850 mb jet that will shift east across our
area late tonight into Wednesday. Good moisture transport will advect
into our area with PWs pushing up to around 1.5 inches or so through
the day on Wednesday. This should all lead to widespread showers
developing later tonight across our southwest/west and then
overspreading the rest of our area through Wednesday morning. Pcpn
will the continue through the afternoon before tapering off from the
west Wednesday night. Some weak instabilities will also be pulled up
into our area so a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible,
especially across southern portions of our area. Deep layer shear
will be strong, but any severe threat should be limited by the lack
of better instabilities. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible given the increasing PWs, with the heaviest rainfall amounts
expected mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Storm total
amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible in spots across our
southwest, but given how dry we have been the last few weeks, think
the overall flood threat will remain on the low side.

Key message 2)
We will transition to more of a west to northwest flow pattern aloft
later this week and into early next week. A series of mid level
short waves dropping down across the Great Lakes will likely lead to
occasional lower end chances for showers Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures will trend back to seasonable readings with highs over
the weekend and into early next week generally in the 55 to 60 degree
range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers are persisting across northern portions of our
area early this morning and these may affect the northern TAF sites
for the next hour or two, with some occasional MVFR conditions
possible. Otherwise, expect a decreasing cloud trend from the south
through the morning hours with VFR conditions prevailing.

High and mid level clouds will begin to spread in from the west this
evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Cigs will
gradually thicken up and trend lower later tonight with showers
developing into the KCVG TAF during the predawn hours.

Southerly flow around 10-20 knots will persist for much of the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys possible at times Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL