Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
538 FXUS61 KILN 071809 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry conditions with warming temperatures into Wednesday. 2) A cold front will move into the area Wednesday night, only making slow southward progress through Thursday. This will bring showers and thunderstorms, possibly with some locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to translate eastward tonight into tomorrow. As this occurs, low level flow will turn and become southerly on Tuesday. Meanwhile, mid level high pressure will expand eastward tomorrow but then start to get suppressed southward on Wednesday. This combination will result in a fairly quick warm up as well as an influx of higher dew points making it more humid. It will be dry into at least early to mid afternoon Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2) A short wave will move from the upper Mississippi Valley eastwards across the upper Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will help force a cold front southeast, entering the forecast area Wednesday night. There is some uncertainty whether any convection can develop ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and affect areas north/west of I-71. If it does, then there could be a narrow window late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening, when instability is maximized, that could result in some strong to severe storms. Larger concern is for locally heavy rainfall. Precipitable water ahead of the boundary is forecast to increase to 1.8 to 2.0 inches. The warm cloud layer will become deep (great than 4 km) and a modest low level jet will be translating across the area Wednesday night. In addition, low level flow will veer and become nearly parallel to the boundary, as the latter only makes slow southward progress as mid level support moves away from the region. This could lead to some locations getting repeated showers and storms overnight. The front will still be draped across the area on Thursday, continuing to move slowly and not getting much push until a second short wave crosses the Ohio Valley late Thursday into Thursday evening. It appears that there may be a relative minimum in activity on Thursday morning, or at least a decrease in intensity of rainfall. But then more robust convection redevelops Thursday afternoon with diurnal heating and the increase in mid level forcing. This will bring a renewed threat of heavy rain and training cells, primarily across the southern counties. All of this activity will push southeast of the area, along with the front, on Thursday evening. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered cumulus will dissipate towards 0Z. May see some cumulus try to develop overnight, but moreso shortly after daybreak Tuesday. Light winds veering to more east or even perhaps a bit south of east late tonight looks more favorable for some shallow fog at KLUK between 09Z and 12Z. Otherwise VFR. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday night into Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday night into Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35