Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
185 FXUS61 KILN 032326 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 626 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on to develop overnight and continue Wednesday as an upper level low pressure system moves northeast through the Upper Midwest. 2) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to more seasonable temperatures and occasional chances for showers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) An upper level low pressure system will lift northeast from the Central Plains across the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes tonight into Wednesday. As it does, an embedded mid level short wave rotating around the base of the low will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley. In response to this - a 45-50 KT 8H low level jet will shift east across ILN/s area late tonight into Wednesday. Favorable moisture transport will advect into our area with PWATs increasing to around 1.5 inches. This leads to widespread showers developing later tonight across ILN/s southwest/west and then overspreading the rest of our area through Wednesday morning. Showers will the continue through the afternoon before tapering off from the west. Very marginal instability develops on Wednesday, so a a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible, especially across southern portions of our area. Deep layer shear will be strong, but any severe threat should be limited by the lack of better instabilities. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given the increasing moisture, with the heaviest rainfall amounts expected mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Storm total amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible in spots across our southwest, but given the recent dry stretch of weather, the overall flood threat will remain low. Key message 2) A mid and upper level trof will develop into a cut off low over the Great Lakes this weekend. A secondary surface cold front will drop thru the area Friday - leading to a chance for showers and cooler temperatures. This low will be followed by a northwest flow pattern aloft into early next week. A series of mid level short waves dropping down across the Great Lakes will likely lead to occasional lower end chances for showers. Temperatures will trend back to seasonable readings with highs over the weekend and into early next week generally in the 55 to 60 degree range. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail into this evening with mainly just an increase in some mid and high level clouds ahead of an approaching disturbance. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this could lead to some marginal LLWS later tonight/early Wednesday. Showers will move in from the southwest late tonight, with rounds of rain continuing through the day on Wednesday. Isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible during the daytime hours, though did not include in the TAFs at this time, since the chance is very low. As the showers move in later tonight into early Wednesday, CIGs will drop to MVFR and IFR, while VSBYs will drop to MVFR. Conditions will slowly improve late tomorrow evening, and have included this in the extended KCVG TAF. Southerly winds will increase during the overnight hours, sustained around 15 knots at times on Wednesday, gusting to 30 knots possible during the daytime hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys possible at times into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...Aiena/AR