Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
186 FXUS61 KILN 301851 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 151 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build into the region overnight offering cold temperatures and dry conditions through the daytime hours on Monday. Snow will develop Monday night and continue into Tuesday morning as a low pressure system tracks northeast from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure to offer dry weather later Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will then drop south through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday providing a reinforcing shot of cold air. The active weather pattern to continue next weekend with additional chances for wintry precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Northwesterly mid level flow develops overnight in the wake of a mid level shortwave. Surface high pressure over the plains builds east-southeast becoming centered over Ohio by 12Z Monday. Low clouds attempt to break up overnight with mid and high level clouds quickly spilling in from the west late. Low temperatures range from the upper teens northwest to the lower 20s south. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure and broad mid level ridging works across the area Monday. Low clouds continue to break up Monday morning with mid and high level clouds thickening up through the day. Monday`s high temperatures range from the lower 30s north to the upper 30s south. Focus shifts to the potential for accumulating snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. Mid level shortwave trough digs ESE from the Plains into the Mid MS Valley by Monday evening and though The Ohio Valley Tuesday. Confidence has been rather low with system regarding snow amount due to a large spread in the ensembles and deterministic solutions. GFS, GEFs and higher res models have been the most aggressive with the ECMWF being less amplified and therefore lower with snowfall. It is interesting to note that the ECMWF-AIFS has been higher. The latest deterministic ECMWF trending a little higher especially in the I-71 corridor. The system is progressive with the snow beginning around 8 PM Monday evening and the best snowfall rates coming in between midnight and 7 AM Tuesday. Accumulating snow will then end Tuesday morning. Have opted for a blended approach with storm total snowfall of 2 to 4 inches across all but the far south- southeast - snow to liquid ratios are below 10 to 1 and a mix with some sleet or even freezing rain is possible. Over the far southeast have 1 to 2 inches forecast. The Monday morning commute looks to be impacted by this snow event. High temperatures Monday to range from near 30 northwest to the upper 30s southeast. Lows Monday night generally drop to the mid and upper 20s. Clouds to hang on Tuesday after the snow ends with highs from the upper 20s northwest to the upper 30s southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Colder and drier air moves into the region Tuesday night with below normal temperatures expected through the week and into next weekend. A quick clipper system will bring snow showers to areas generally north of I-70 Wednesday night. Then an arctic air mass pushes from the upper plains into the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, where H8 temps of -5 to -15C are possible, bringing overnight lows in the single digits to mid teens Thursday night into Friday morning. The next potential for more substantial wintry precip will come with a pattern change to slightly more amplified flow Friday into early Saturday as Gulf moisture brings overrunning precip across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR clouds blanket the TAF sites in the wake of a surface cold front that passed thru the area early this morning. These clouds are generally between 2500 and 3000 feet with an occasional bump up to VFR. MVFR clouds to improve to VFR overnight as mid and high level clouds begin to spill in from the west. The mid clouds thicken thru the day with snow holding off until Monday evening. West winds gusting up to 25 kts will diminish this evening and become light northwest to northeast overnight. Easterly winds at 10 kts or less are expected Monday. OUTLOOK...Snow is expected Monday night into Tuesday with MVFR/IFR conditions likely. Some LIFR VSBY will be possible at times in snow Monday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...AR