175
FXUS61 KILN 311724
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
124 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain to the
region Sunday and early Monday. A stronger system will result in
more widespread precipitation for the middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Surface high pressure will move east tonight ahead of a weak mid
level s/w. This s/w will be undercutting a l/w ridge, which will
hamper any deeper development of s/w and associated vorticity. Light
and scattered rainfall with this system will end early Monday morning
as the mean s/w axis exits to the easts during this time. The l/w
ridge builds back in Mon night and early Tues, then gets shunted ewd
during the day. This will allow swly flow over the Ohio Valley to
take hold ahead of a potent l/w trough.

This l/w trough and/or cutoff low is all over the map for Tues night
onward, leading to very low confidence in forecast going forward.
Even though confidence is low on mass fields, they all support rain
on Wed with deep sw flow being wrung out over the region. A continued
chance of rain through the end of the week is also prudent given the
divergence of upper level mass fields. While some chance of rain is
expected through the period, it won`t be any washout or extended
rainfall event after the more widespread rain expected Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak upper level disturbance will approach from the west tonight
and early Sunday. As it does, mid and high level clouds will thicken
and lower with VFR conditions will prevailing.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Mon and Wednesday. MVFR vsbys possible
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...Franks