Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
246 FXUS61 KILN 232312 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 712 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thunderstorms are possible late Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and cool trough Friday. Warm and humid conditions return on Sunday along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface high pressure continues to build across the Ohio Valley from the northwest through Friday. Dry conditions and below average temperatures persist with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s to near 80. The surface high shifts east this weekend which will allow warmer temperatures and higher dew points to move back into the area from the south. Shower and thunderstorms chances return with the summer- like conditions. Upper level shortwave troughs moving through the northwesterly flow aloft could lead to periods of greater storm coverage at times. One potential period for more storm activity is Monday evening and Monday night. Instability may end up overlapping with strong shear when a potential cluster of storms or MCS sinks into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. Details remain very murky without CAM guidance to resolve potential convective details, but there are some signs for convective activity somewhere in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will prevail through the period. Few remaining cumulus will dissipate early in the period. Few to scattered cumulus will occur again on Friday afternoon with increasing high clouds. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday and then again Monday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Campbell AVIATION...35