035
FXUS61 KILN 262319
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
619 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk and cold conditions will continue overnight into Thanksgiving.
Surface high pressure will offer dry weather and less wind for
Friday. Low pressure will provide impactful weather this weekend with
a wintry mix Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep stacked low to migrate slowly east through the northern Great
Lakes this evening and into southeast Canada overnight. In the wake
of an associated strong cold front - CAA, cyclonic flow, and a tight
pressure gradient was leading to clouds and strong winds. West wind
gusts of 40-45 mph have been observed but have not peaked yet and
expect max wind gusts up to 50 mph - with the highest gusts across
west central Ohio. Winds will diminish overnight some but will still
remain close to 20 mph. Will continue the wind advisory across the
north through 10 PM. Clouds look to hang tough thru the evening and
then begin to decrease across the southwest late. Cold temperatures
drop to lows in the mid and upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Amplified mid level flow with a ridge over the west and long wave
trough over the eastern CONUS. Skies look to vary from a good amount
of sunshine over the southwest to considerable cloudiness across the
far north-northeast where cyclonic flow and fetch off the lakes will
lead to more clouds. Brisk west winds 15-20 mph will continue
through Thursday, with highs temperatures ranging from the lower 30s
far north to the upper 30s south of the Ohio River.

An embedded shortwave and flow off the Lakes may lead to a few snow
showers far north - Thursday night with continued cloud cover. The
remainder of the area should see mostly clear to partly clouds skies.
Cold temperatures drop to lows in the lower 20s in most locations
with mid 20s in the urban locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong (1032) surface high will be pushing east into the Ohio
Valley region from the Plains at the start of the extended. This
results in quiet weather on Friday with decreasing cloud cover. As
this feature shifts east by Friday night, clear skies and light
winds will result in strong radiational cooling. Right now,
overnight lows are forecast in the teens, but these may need to be
tweaked lower as we get closer. Saturday morning arrives dry, though
with cloud cover increasing ahead of the next disturbance....

All eyes will be on a rather robust system that is poised to impact
the region this holiday weekend. A deepening shortwave to the west
of the Great Lakes will bring a mix of rain and snow, in addition to
renewed breezy conditions, to the region on Saturday into Sunday.

Extended guidance remains muddled on the details concerning
placement of the low and how quickly the residual surface high can
be punted off to the east. Current thinking is that initial p-type
will be all snow Saturday afternoon/evening, quickly transitioning
to a mix and then to all rain as we head into the overnight hours
into Sunday morning. As cold air wraps around on the backside of the
low, a transition back to a wintry mix or even all snow on Sunday is
possible.

The ECMWF ensemble continues to run with a warmer solution that
holds onto the surface high longer, however, recent trends have
shifted the center of the low farther south, somewhat limiting the
extent the warm sector is able to expand into the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, the GFS and Canadian ensembles both are trending toward a
colder solution with a quicker shift of the high. Either way, trends
indicate that a subtle bump up in snow totals was warranted. For
now, have around 2 inches in east central IN/ west central OH with a
quick taper down to 0.25" closer to Columbus. However, this is a
VERY early deterministic guess. For what it`s worth, ensemble plumes
have an average closer to 0.5 inch in Columbus... this tells us that
there is still quite a bit of spread in solutions and not to hang
your hat on any totals this far out!

After the cold front is pulled through on Sunday, we`ll have a non-
diurnal temperature drop and temperatures will plummet throughout
the daytime hours. By Sunday night, forecast temps fall into the
20s, possibly even teens in west central Ohio. With the continued
breezy conditions, feels like temperatures will be comfortably in
the teens. Cover up exposed skin if you`re planning to be outside.

Weak surface high pressure moves in across the Great Lakes on Monday
behind the low, resulting in mostly dry conditions across the
region. Low end PoPs linger across the southern portion of the CWA,
where the surface high`s influence isn`t as strong, however,
confidence on Pops vs no PoPs this far out when very weak forcing is
present isn`t robust.

Looking out further in time, ensembles do hint at yet another system
to work through, so we should remain active the first week of
December.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winds remain the biggest issue to discuss through the TAF period, and
especially through the next few hours. Westerly winds of 15-20 knots,
with gusts of 30-35 knots, will continue through the next few hours.
Although it is after sunset, the winds are not expected to quickly
drop off, and the TAFs indicate that gusts will continue through the
overnight hours.

Some very light precipitation has been working its way through the
area, with only some very minor impacts to visibilities possible.

Ceilings are expected to remain VFR through much of the period, but
some patches of MVFR will probably develop around 12Z. This has been
included in some of the TAFs with a TEMPO group. Otherwise, winds
tomorrow will have some 20-25 knot gusts, but conditions will be VFR.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hatzos