233
FXUS61 KILN 080540
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
140 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure persists. A
disturbance moving from the west will bring a chance of showers
and possibly a thunderstorm Saturday and Sunday. High pressure
and dry air return for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Diurnally driven cu are dissipating while high clouds from the
disturbance out west are beginning to overspread the region, but
quiet conditions prevail during the overnight hours. Winds
decrease and become calm to light and variable. Overnight lows
still trending a few degrees below normal, into the mid 50s.

Previous discussion-> High pressure centered to the south will
provide dry weather and mainly clear skies tonight. Gusty west
winds are expected to diminish to under 6 knots overnight. Below
normal lows in the 50s are forecast by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A mid-level disturbance and surface low will be tracking across
the Central Ohio Valley. The disturbance will be weakening as it
encounters dry air and high pressure in place. A few showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may occur out of the modest
moisture, convergence and lift that are associated with this
system. The shower threat begins mainly in western locations on
Saturday, shifting south to the Ohio River Saturday night as the
system moves east.

Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s west, up to around
80 east. Insulating cloud cover should allow above normal lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Near or just below normal temperatures are expected as we end the
weekend and continue into the next work week. This is mainly driven
by the synoptic pattern aloft, with troughing present in the jet
stream. This trough will amplify as we progress through the day on
Sunday as PVA ejects southward from Canada. There will be subtle
changes in the overall structure and strength of this troughing
feature, but this trough will remain in place as we head into the
beginning of the work week. Given the persistent northwesterly flow,
drier air will also accompany this feature, leading to dewpoints in
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the CWA.

This main troughing feature will propagate eastward by late Tuesday
into Wednesday. The surface response appears to be slow on
Wednesday, but we will begin to see a slight uptick in temperature
and dewpoint values. A more notable uptick in heat/humidity values
is expected on Thursday as H5 height rises continue.

Drier conditions are favored during the majority of the extended
forecast period, but a couple of days with a low chance of PoPs
remains for portions of our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High level clouds will continue to increase across the area
through daybreak ahead of an approaching mid level short wave.
This system will weaken as it moves into drier air across our
area today. The best chance for any rain will be across the
Tri-State area, but even here any pcpn looks to be fairly light.
Will go ahead and hang on to a VCSH for a few hour period today
at KCVG/KLUK. Otherwise, the main effect from this system will
be a gradual lowering of the VFR cloud deck later today into
tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Sunday as showers and
storms move through the region.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...CA/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...JGL