Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
800 FXUS61 KILN 051813 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 113 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to cooler temperatures and occasional chances for showers. 2) Temperatures will make a return to above normal for the new work week, though only by about 5-8 degrees on highs and less than 5 degrees on lows. The next chance for rain at the end of the week will be followed by cooler temperatures next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Mid level trof to drop down across the region and through the upper Ohio Valley Friday with a low closing off over the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. This system will bring a chance of showers Friday. Precipitation will be light and scattered with the best chance across the north during the morning. A secondary frontal passage will also usher in a somewhat cooler airmass heading into the weekend. Daytime highs will only be in the 50s Saturday and Sunday. Frost will be possible Friday night with lows in the mid 30s. Frost and freezing conditions will also be possible Saturday night and Sunday night with lows expected to be in the lower and middle 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2) A dry forecast is expected after Friday through most of next week as northwest flow aloft becomes more westerly. Starting Monday, temperatures will modify a little each day, generally in the low to mid 60s for highs and mid-upper 30s for lows. The next chance for rain looks to hold off until next Thursday - followed by cooler temperatures next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions with few to scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon. MVFR conditions develop late tonight into Friday as a secondary cold front pushes southeast thru the area. Scattered showers will be possible mainly Friday morning but coverage is too low to mention in the TAF forecast. The best potential for showers will be observed at the Central Ohio TAF sites. Southwest winds gusting to around 20 kts this afternoon will drop off this evening. A shift to the northwest around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts will occur Friday with the frontal passage. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR