129
FXUS61 KILN 141935
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Turning much warmer and more humid by late Tuesday, leading to a
potential for showers and thunderstorms arriving from the
northwest on Tuesday night as a cold front approaches.

2) Well above normal heat and humidity continues from Wednesday
through much of the week. A nearby frontal boundary will provide a
focus for convection at times. There is also a potential for heavy
rainfall through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1)

After another relatively cool start to the day on Tuesday, a
noticeable change will occur as high pressure departs to the east
and winds turn out of the south southwest. The breezes will carry a
more uncomfortable air mass back into the area. Dew points will
surge back into the 60s, possibly reaching near 70 over and near
southeast IN. A cold front will approach from the north northwest on
Tuesday night, slowing as it becomes aligned more parallel to the
flow aloft. At least scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected
over the northwest portion of the forecast area as the front
approaches, but will struggle to make it as far southeast as KCVG-
KILN-KCMH. Should any storms erupt Tuesday evening, considerable
instability (potentially CAPE of 2K+ J/kg) and dry air aloft could
support some strong wind gusts. However, a lack of shear would
prevent good organization, and the better chance for storms is later
in the night when instability will be more meager.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

An anomalously strong ridge will start out anchored over the
southern Appalachians, while a positively tilted trough aligns from
south central Canada through the Pacific Northwest and into northern
California. Faster west southwest flow between these two features
will reside from the central/northern Rockies through the Great
Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from
the eastern Great Lakes region through the Ohio Valley and into the
middle Mississippi Valley. The models are in good agreement through
the end of the work week, with the strong ridge only gradually
weakening with time. Meanwhile, fast-moving short energy will
continue to ride from west to east along the periphery of the ridge
axis across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions, allowing a
baroclinic zone to oscillate back and forth across the region. The
model agreement breaks down more so this weekend and into early next
week, specifically associated with the speed at which a northwestern
CONUS closed low opens up and ejects eastward. Rain chances will
continue to threaten across the Ohio Valley, with the heat likely
not relenting until late this weekend into early next week.

850 mb temperatures will peak at around 20-21C through Thursday.
This will allow for many locations to see highs in the lower 90s
each day, while lows at night only cool off to the upper 60s to
lower 70s. As a cold front approaches from the northwest, scattered
convection will threaten locations mainly north of I-70 from
Wednesday through Thursday. There will be a high PWAT air mass in
place, with LREF mean PWATs of 1.9-2.0 inches noted, along with the
surface boundary aligning more parallel with the flow aloft. As
such, locally heavy rainfall will be a threat where convection does
occur. High pressure will temporarily move in from the north on
Friday. Rain chances return this weekend and into early next week,
but confidence remains low on timing of the associated frontal
systems, given the model disagreement on the aforementioned ejecting
upstream trough. Temperatures will continue to run close to 10
degrees above normal each day through Saturday, with highs ranging
from the mid 80s north to near 90 degrees south. Temperatures will
then be cooler Sunday and especially Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period.
However, some MVFR to IFR fog is possible in valleys of southeast OH
and near the Ohio River overnight and early Tuesday morning
(including KLUK).

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible in some locations at times from
Tuesday night through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JKL
AVIATION...JKL