931
FXUS61 KILN 161905
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
305 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood watch issued tonight and Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity continue through Thursday, with occasional
chances for storms through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)


The center of a large mid level ridge remains over the TN Valley
today. ILN/s area is in the warm and moist airmass with PWAT
values around 2 inches. Surface dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s
and highs from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s south. This will
result in maximum heat indices of 95 to around 100 across the south.

Morning convection has shifted east of the area and weakened. Focus
shifts to MCV which tracks east in the westerly flow around the
periphery of the ridge across central and northern Ohio. This
combined with moderate instability will lead to scattered storms late
this afternoon into early evening. The best coverage of storms looks
to impact areas along and north of I-70. DCAPE values approaching
1000 J/KG suggest that a few for the stronger storms could produce
strong to damaging winds but an organized threat appears unlikely.
The greater threat will likely be for heavy rain, with PWAT values
around 2 inches. Also, model solutions suggest that a 8H low level
jet around 30 kts will act to generate a potential MCS. This complex
will likely develop into west central Ohio late tonight and move thru
the area Thursday morning. The exact placement of this feature is
somewhat uncertain but the most likely location is along and north of
the I-70 corridor. HREF LPMM suggest that the potential exists for
swaths of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 5 inches thru Thursday.
This area has received heavy rain last night. This lines up with WPC
forecast area in slight risk of excessive rainfall today and
marginal risk on Thursday. Will issue a flood watch for potential
flash flooding overnight into Thursday.

The northern portion of the mid level ridge breaks down as the center
of the high retrogrades west across the Lower MS Valley into the
Southern Plains on Friday. This will allow the surface front to shift
south into the Ohio Valley, lowering max temps, but increasing
precipitation chances across the south prior to ending. A brief
respite in rain will exist later Friday into early Saturday with
additional rain expected Saturday night and Sunday. Forecast
confidence becomes lower in any specifics this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Morning convection has shifted east of the area and weakened leaving
VFR conditions. Additional scattered storms are expected to develop
in the moderately unstable airmass this afternoon. The best coverage
of these storms will impact the northern TAF sites prior to
dissipating early this evening. A low level jet will lead to the
development of a thunderstorm complex that impacts the area late
tonight into Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the exact track
of these storms but the most likely impacts are across the northern
TAF sites. Some brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible where
storms hit.

Also, have a mention of MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK valley
location. There is some uncertainty regarding the fog and if clouds
are thinner IFR conditions will be possible.


West-southwest today, at or below 10 knots become light and variable
tonight and then southwest becoming northwest at less than 10 kts
Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday.


&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...None.
IN...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for INZ050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR