Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
301 FXUS61 KILN 172306 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 706 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather will continue tonight as high pressure exits to the east. Low pressure will approach from the west on Saturday into Saturday night, bringing gusty winds and precipitation to close the weekend. Much cooler temperatures will be present into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong mid-level trough will begin to dive south into the northern High Plains tonight as ridging builds across the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow in the low levels will keep temperatures up in the 50s, with high clouds coming and going through the night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... Much warmer temperatures will arrive on Saturday while dewpoints increase through the 50s to near 60 by the afternoon. The deepening mid-level trough will cause formation of a surface low in the middle Mississippi Valley. This low will intensify quickly Saturday evening into the overnight hours as it lifts northeast into the Great Lakes. Warm air and moisture advection could cause a few showers to develop in the evening, mainly across our western counties. However, most of the showers and storms associated with the strengthening system will arrive after midnight. A 50-60 knot low level jet will cause gusty winds, especially during any convection after midnight heading toward the end of the short term period. Can`t rule out a strong to severe storm toward sunrise ahead of the cold front due to wind gust potential. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong low pressure system moves through the Lower Great Lakes on Sunday. Breezy, southerly winds and widespread showers are expected during the morning hours. Winds may gust upwards of 35 mph prior to noon. Despite a 50+ knot LLJ, the strongest winds may stay aloft in the WAA unless showers/storms can transport winds downward. The aforementioned widespread showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are likely to be concentrated around a prefrontal trough Sunday morning before becoming more scattered behind trough later during the day. The severe threat remains fairly low unless some instability can form Sunday morning ahead of the actual cold front. The most likely area for any instability is across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky. Winds remain breezy and shift to the west behind the cold front later on Sunday. Winds may gust upwards of 40 mph in the CAA behind the front which will be a favorable for downward momentum mixing. Additionally, some light shower activity is likely to remain across the area for at least 6-12 hours after FROPA. Temperatures drop into the 50s and then into the 40s Sunday night. Surface high pressure briefly builds in across the Ohio Valley on Monday bringing dry conditions before the next low pressure system and cold front progresses through the area Monday night/Tuesday morning. Some isolated to scattered shower activity is possible with this second cold front although moisture appears a bit limited. Cooler air and unsettled conditions with clouds and possible shower activity may linger into Wednesday with upper level troughing in place. High pressure eventually progresses across the area on Thursday before another weak front moves through toward the end of the week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side for the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Intermittent mid/high clouds will overspread the region through daybreak before some 6-8kft clouds develop/move in by the afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually thicken/become more widespread toward 00z and beyond. VFR conditions will prevail, with the lone exception being the potential for some brief river valley BR and MVFR VSBYs at KLUK during the predawn hours. However, confidence is low in this occurring given the expectation for some mid/high clouds to be streaming through the area at times through sunrise. Light SSE winds around 5kts through 12z will go more out of the SW and increase to 10-15kts, with gusts around 20kts, by the afternoon. Some SW LLWS on the order of 40-45kts is expected around/past 06z Sunday. OUTLOOK...Gusty winds to 40kts, as well as thunderstorms, are possible tonight into Sunday. MVFR CIGs possible Sunday into Sunday night. LLWS is likely late tonight into Sunday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...