686
FXUS61 KILN 141039
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
639 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today as a warm front
lifts north across the region. A strong weather system will move
through the region this weekend, bringing widespread showers and a
chance for thunderstorms, along with gusty winds and a heavy rain
potential. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the
region through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak frontal boundary currently situated along the Ohio River will
lift slowly north across our area through the day. A few showers have
popped up early this morning along this boundary so will allow for a
narrow line of slight chance pops along the boundary through mid
morning. Otherwise, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten up,
winds will increase through the day with some gusts in the 20 to 30
mph range possible through the afternoon hours. In the WAA, afternoon
highs will approach record highs with afternoon readings in the mid
to upper 70s. With the good mixing, will also nudge down afternoon
dewpoints and RHs could approach 25 percent, especially across our
southeast, where an enhanced fire risk may develop through the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The surface pressure gradient will continue to tighten through
tonight as a strong low pressure system lifts northeast into the
western Great Lakes. As it does, a 60-70 knot 850 mb jet will shift
east into our western areas late tonight before overspreading the
rest of our area through Saturday morning. This will be accompanied
by a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms that will shift east
into our western areas late. It looks like the better surface based
instability will remain just off to our west through the overnight
period, so expect the majority of any thunderstorms to be mainly
elevated late tonight into Saturday morning. Still though, given the
strong winds aloft, it will be tough to rule out a few marginally
severe wind gusts with any of the stronger storms across our west
late tonight/early Saturday morning. This activity should continue
to shift off to the east and weaken through late morning, leading to
a potential lull in the more widespread pcpn later Saturday morning
into early Saturday afternoon.

A secondary mid level short wave will lift northeast across the
Tennessee Valley through Saturday afternoon and this will help
induce a secondary surface wave/low pressure system that will shift
northeast toward our area late in the day. This will lead to an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms from the south
through late afternoon. There is some uncertainty though in the
amount of surface based instability that will be available through
late afternoon, which could help limit the overall severe threat.

While some of the wind gusts later tonight will likely be
convectively enhanced, have opted to issue a Wind Advisory for about
the western two thirds of our area. Will then just continue it on
through the day on Saturday to account for the gradient wind
potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances peak on Saturday night with locally heavy rain being
possible. After sunset, a nocturnally enhanced low level jet ramps
up east of an approaching cold front and could result in
frontogenetically enhanced bands of showers/storms. Global ensemble
guidance is depicting some probabilities of QPF exceeding 2 inches
especially in the Tri-State. Mesoscale ensemble model guidance
should help refine the forecast in the near future. If heavy
rainfall bands line up over the same location, a flash flood threat
may develop. In terms of severe risk, the threat does not appear
overly favorable especially as the night progresses. Diurnal
instability should be waning shortly after sunset and any form of a
nocturnal inversion should help keep strong winds aloft. The main
severe threat would likely be limited to prior to 10pm.

Shower chances decrease on Sunday after FROPA. Cool, dry air remains
in place through Monday as high pressure shifts by to the south.
Mild temperatures return for the midweek when southerly flow
develops before another cold front pushes through toward the end of
the week. Rain is likely to accompany the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front will lift north across the area through this afternoon.
This could lead to a few cu, but generally expect mainly high level
clouds across the area today. The pressure gradient will tighten up
today into tonight as a strong low pressure system lifts northeast
across the western Great Lakes. This will lead to increasing
southerly winds with some wind gusts to around 25 knots possible this
afternoon. Some LLWS will develop this evening and continue through
the overnight hours as a strong low level jet shifts east across the
mid Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a weakening line of showers and
thunderstorms will move in from the west last tonight into Saturday
morning. This could lead to some wind gusts in excess of 30 knots
toward the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Wind gusts above 35 kts likely
Saturday through Saturday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>055-060>063-070>072-077>080.
KY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>098.
IN...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL