511
FXUS61 KILN 281422
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1022 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm temperatures return for the early part of the work
week. After a dry Monday, showers and storms return on Tuesday with
the passage of a cold front, several of which could be strong to
severe. Upper level troughing persists across the Ohio Valley through
at least the end of the work week, which will keep the weather
pattern unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure remains the primary weather influence today,
keeping conditions dry. This system will begin to shift eastward
throughout the day as it drifts towards the Atlantic coast. Return
flow on the backside of the surface high will result in an influx of
seasonably warm air, along with a gradual increase in humidity
values. With the WAA and plenty of insolation, highs will climb back
into the middle 70s to near 80 in our far south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Skies will remain clear for the majority of the night before clouds
build in from the west ahead of the next system. However, a
tightening pressure gradient will lead to a response in surface
winds, increasing southerly flow overnight. This will result in mild
overnight lows in the 60s across our CWA.

The main focus remains on the severe potential for Tuesday. CAMs now
offer a little more insight on timing and storm mode. Models
continue to highlight moderate instability developing during the day,
but there does seem to be a trend towards an earlier onset of
storms. SBCAPE values of 1500-2000+ J/kg still seem probable, with
the highest values expected near the Tristate. Wind shear profiles
still appear to be marginal, but sufficient enough to lead to
organized convection (especially with the forcing of a cold front).

By late morning, isolated cells may begin to develop across eastern
IN/far western OH with a pre-frontal trough. Large hail would likely
be the primary threat with any of these discrete cells earlier in the
day, but given that some supercells could develop, an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out (but tornadoes do not appear to be a
primary threat). As we progress into the early to mid afternoon,
additional storm development occurs with the moderate levels of
instability and increased forcing ahead of a cold front. This will
likely result in more clustering of storms, perhaps forming a QLCS
during the afternoon. Complex of storms would continue to move
eastward with the progression of the cold front, with damaging
straight-line winds now becoming the primary threat (although large
hail and a spin-up tornado are still at play). It appears that the
severe threat would likely diminish by the early to mid evening hours
given the latest hi-res model trends showing a fast progression of
these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While initial line of convection may already have cleared the area
before the start of the period, the cold front will still be moving
through the region on Tuesday night. This combined with a trailing
short wave moving up the Ohio Valley will result in more showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. It is unclear whether the
atmosphere can recover sufficiently in the wake of the initial line
for this additional activity to pose any threat. More than likely,
instability will have waned enough to limit the strength of any
storms, but will have to keep an eye on how this evolves.

The front will get through the entire forecast area before stalling
across Kentucky. It will start to move back north on Wednesday
afternoon, likely getting back into southern counties and then
lifting across the entire area on Wednesday night. This will result
in continuing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

A more robust, but weakening, short wave will lift out of the mid
South on Thursday and track across the region Thursday night. This
will be just in advance of a digging short wave from the northern
stream that will swing through Friday night. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage as we head through Thursday
with a cold front pushing through Thursday night. At least scattered
showers will continue on Friday with a secondary trough moving
through.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will build in for the weekend.

Temperatures will remain above normal until the cold front passes.
There will be a brief cool down, for a day or two, with readings
rebounding back above normal for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions persist through the taf period. Mid level clouds
continue to expand eastward this morning, but will eventually begin
to break apart as we progress through the day.

Winds will shift to the south by late morning, increasing to around
10 kts. Continue to highlight increasing surface winds and gusts
tonight ahead of the next low pressure system, along with LLWS
tonight, mainly after 06z. Wind gusts could increase to 25-30 kts
Tuesday morning before shower/storm chances increase.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Tuesday into Tuesday night and
possible again on Thursday. MVFR ceilings are possible on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Clark/Hickman
NEAR TERM...Clark/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark