Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
838 FXUS61 KILN 021646 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1246 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected locally through at least midweek, with a gradual return to more seasonably humid conditions. This may be accompanied by some low end daily afternoon shower and storm chances, but coverage should remain fairly limited through midweek. Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A quick-moving mid/upper level disturbance has brought some mid/clouds to the area thus far today, but a clearing trend will continue to expand from west to east through the remainder of the daytime. At the sfc, very dry air remains entrenched across the region with sfc high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Dewpoints should mix down a bit into the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon, yielding dewpoint depressions on the order of about 25-30 degrees. N/NE sfc flow will continue to supply dry LL air into the area through today, but as the high drifts to the E into the interior NE CONUS by Sunday, some return flow will begin to emerge once again. Highs today will reach to around 80 degrees by late afternoon amidst increasing sunshine before dipping into the mid to upper 50s once again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... By Sunday through the first part of the workweek, attention will turn to a slow-moving, meandering weak low across the SE CONUS, which will slowly drift to the NW through the TN Vly into the SW OH Vly by Monday/Tuesday. This will occur on the wrn periphery of the departing high, but the LL flow locally should largely remain out of the E/SE, which means that the best moisture advection should occur to the SW of the ILN FA through early week. There certainly will still be some erosion to the dry air locally, but it will happen rather slowly through the coming days. The best chance for a stray afternoon shower/storm will be across parts of N KY into SE IN both Sunday and Monday, but even these prospects should remain limited in nature given the prevalence of easterly LL flow through the time period maintaining relatively dry air in the area. Most, if not all, of the ILN FA will remain dry at least through Sunday, and probably Monday as well. Highs on Sunday will top out in the lower 80s with dewpoints generally still in the upper 50s. Temps Sunday night dip to around 60 degrees, with some mid/upper 50s still possible in central OH where the dry air will remain the longest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The Ohio Valley will remain on the western fringe of a surface high centered over southeastern Canada this week. The synoptic conditions will be slow to evolve. A gradual warming and moistening trend occurs through the end of the week with the highest theta e air arriving Thursday and Friday on southerly winds. Increasing afternoon shower/storm chances accompany the more summerlike air later in the week. Ensemble guidance suggests lows remain above early August averages while highs remain slightly below average until Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCT/BKN cirrus will continue to stream through the region, gradually decreasing in coverage toward this evening. Beneath the cirrus, a FEW VFR Cu are sprouting with the daytime heating, but these too should dissipate toward/beyond 00z. A FEW/SCT cirrus are expected for the overnight, with some brief MVFR VSBYs due to BR possible at KLUK in the several hours around daybreak. However, with LL sfc flow expected to remain out of the ENE, the expectation is that any VSBY reductions will be brief in nature. FEW/SCT Cu will develop/move in from the SE around/after 12z Sunday, particularly for SW sites of KCVG/KLUK where LL moisture will be greatest. However, do think that any SHRA associated with the subtle increase in moisture will remain well S of the local sites. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...KC