168
FXUS61 KILN 041048
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
548 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today as
an upper level low pressure system moves northeast through the Upper
Midwest.

2) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region
late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to somewhat
cooler temperatures and occasional chances for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A strengthening low level jet will overspread our area through this
morning ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. Good moisture
advection associated with this will lead to developing shower
activity through the morning hours. Shower activity will then
continue into this afternoon before beginning to taper off from west
to east late this afternoon into this evening. Instability will
remain weak at best, so think any embedded thunderstorm activity
should be fairly limited. PWs will creep up into the 1.5 inch range,
so some of the stronger showers/storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. However, given the overall dry antecedent
conditions, any flooding concerns should be limited.

Key message 2)
A mid level short wave will drop down across the Great Lakes region
and through the upper Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. This will
bring a chance of showers Friday into Friday night. This will also
usher in a somewhat cooler airmass heading into the weekend. Daytime
highs will only be in the 50s Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will
then gradually rebound Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers will continue into this afternoon as a mid level short wave
moves through the Ohio Valley. MVFR cigs and vsbys will prevail with
some periods of IFR conditions possible. The precipitation will
taper off from west to east across the area late this afternoon and
into this evening with cigs trending back into VFR heading into
tonight South winds will gust to around 25 knots at times through
this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Friday into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL