741
FXUS61 KILN 271716
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
116 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures continue through the rest of the work week
and into the weekend. There will however be a warming trend that
ensues late this weekend into the beginning of next week. A cold
front pushes through on Thursday which may provide some rain chances,
but in general, dry conditions remain favored through the majority
of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Longwave H5 trough remains intact over much of the eastern CONUS.
Broad surface high pressure is stretched across the Ohio Valley, with
the center of the high generally around our CWA. The increased
subsidence will allow for more sunshine/insolation today, allowing
for highs to climb a degree or two higher compared to yesterday.
Satellite obs do show much lower cu development across the fa, but
low clouds will continue to develop and expand with diurnal heating.

Skies become clear tonight and winds go nearly calm, enhancing the
radiative cooling processes yet again. This will result in lows
dipping into the middle 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An embedded shortwave trough will eject through the Great Lakes
region Thursday, diving southward into the upper Ohio Valley. An
associated surface cold front will gradually work its way southward,
but won`t move through the ILN CWA until Thursday night. Some pcpn is
expected to develop with this forcing, but the timing of the front
will be unfavorable for widespread QPF in our fa. Best chance for
rain will be Thursday afternoon and evening given the diurnal
enhancement. Very marginal instability will be present Thursday
afternoon, primarily in SE Indiana and west-central OH. This may
result in a rumble of thunder or two, but storm coverage will be
limited.

Front continues to push through during the overnight hours, which may
result in scattered areas of light rain. Given the jump in dewpoints
and some increased cloud coverage, lows will only dip into the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Closed low over southern Quebec at the beginning of the period will
gradually move off to the east, but the mean long wave trough across
eastern North America will persist with new energy dropping out of
the Canadian Plains late in the period to reinforce the pattern.

However, there is some spread in solutions regarding this latter
system. Much of the ECMWF ensemble as well as the AIFS are
forecasting a stronger and faster trough. The Canadian ensemble is
much shallower and slower with the GEFS having a relatively equal
split in members between these two possibilities. The former would
push a cold front into the Great Lakes on Wednesday which could
result in a chance of showers mainly in western and northern areas
while the latter would delay any chance beyond the forecast period.

Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. Temperatures will cool off
again in the wake of Thursday night`s front, but then readings will
moderate heading into next week, getting close to normal by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected to continue through the taf period, with the exception
being at KLUK with potential river valley fog. While fog has been
more limited the past couple nights at KLUK, a shift in wind
direction from the south may help with some of the development.
Still, the air mass remains very dry, so IFR vsbys or worse is still
low confidence.

Cu field less prominent today with the center of high pressure
sitting overhead. Once the high drifts eastward tonight, winds will
shift towards the south. Southwesterly winds expected through
Thursday morning before shifting out of the west during the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark