822
FXUS61 KILN 010005
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
805 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to forecast, issued a
heat advisory Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A heat advisory has been issued for Tuesday and Wednesday with
expected apparent temperatures of 99-103 across the majority of the
CWA.

Heat will build into midweek. The next chance of showers and storms
will be towards the end of the week which will also bring
temperatures down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1) The heat and max temperatures Tues and Wed are
probably a smidge overdone and grids have been untouched in that
regard. This puts the advisory as I`m seeing it as a low end threat
on both days. Thursday is similar but confidence in NBM forecast
that far out wrt heat is low. Kicking Thursday`s can to tomorrow`s
day shift or later.

Mid level high centered over the Ozarks will slowly translate east
into the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday. Temperatures will
continue to progressively get warmer with each passing day during
this time frame. Suspect that guidance is a bit bullish. While soils
are drying out, there are still lingering wet conditions across the
northern half of the area. Nonetheless, after today heat indices will
be around 100.

On Thursday, the mid level ridge starts to get suppressed slightly
southwards. A front that lays out across the lower Great Lakes may be
in close enough proximity to bring at least a low chance of storms
Thursday afternoon and evening in the north. The affect on
temperatures looks minimal. And in the south, this may end up being
the hottest day.

A mid level trough over eastern Canada will dig as it moves southeast
towards the end of the week. This will cause the ridge to retrograde
back into the Plains. The front that was across the Great Lakes on
Thursday will push into, and most likely through, the area. The
greatest chance of storms will be on Friday. These changes will also
result in temperatures not being as high, although still remaining
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS Valley to build east into
the Ohio Valley thru the TAf period. A few sprinkles can not be ruled
out across the central Ohio TAF sites early from decaying convection
with no impact on flight categories. Mid and high level clouds
thickest across the north will thin some overnight. Light winds,
humid airmass and decrease in clouds may lead to fog development
overnight - especially in valleys. Have MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions
at KLUK with fog possible at KILN. Any fog quickly improves after
sunrise Tuesday. Expect some VFR cumulus clouds Tuesday along with
some high level clouds.

Light south-southwest winds overnight will increase to around 10 kts
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-
     058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...AR