Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
631 FXUS61 KILN 231808 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 108 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Monday. A system will bring rain to the region starting Monday night. A cold front will move through on Wednesday bringing colder and breezy conditions to the region. Another system will move through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry conditions are expected through the near term. There will be an increase in high clouds overnight which will be the main potential mitigating factor to fog development overnight. Have patchy fog and patchy dense fog in across many portions of the region since there are light winds and the greater coverage of clouds is not expected to move into until later in the overnight. Low temperatures will be cooler with lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are expected during the day on Monday, however rain will start to move into the region Monday night. Expect widespread coverage in rain by late in the overnight hours. Temperatures are expected to be in the 50s during the day on Monday. Only expect temperatures to drop down into the 40s Monday night with the cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread rainfall is likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning as a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley while an upper level shortwave trough also progresses through. After the initial push of moisture and forcing during the morning, rain chances go down but still persist ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate southerly flow allows forecast highs to reach upwards of 60 especially south of the Ohio River. Conditions remain unsettled and warm Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the cold front pushes through the Ohio Valley during the daytime which will bring an end to shower activity and allow much colder air to advect in on gusty northwesterly flow. Dropping temperatures are expected during the afternoon so high temperatures are likely to occur early in the day. Cold and gusty conditions persist through Wednesday night and Thanksgiving as a low strong wraps up in southeastern Canada. Temperatures for the holiday may not get out of the 30s and breezy conditions will make wind chills feel a bit colder. Chilly, dry weather continues on Friday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley which at least leads to calmer winds. The surface high quickly moves east by Saturday night. Warmer, moist air lifts north into the region west of the high. Precipitation chances increase on Saturday and blossom by Sunday/Sunday night. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will start out the TAF period and persist through the first part of the night. Fog will be possible overnight especially at KLUK and KILN. The one mitigating factor to the fog will be an increase in high clouds as the night progresses. High clouds will continue to move across the region during the day on Monday along with the potential for some mid clouds as well. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely late Monday night into Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possible into Wednesday. Winds gusts to around 30 kt are possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...