Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
176 FXUS61 KILN 110949 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 549 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will lead to mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A compact mid level low pressure system will drop southeast across the lower Great Lakes today. As it does, an associated weak cold front will sag southeast into our area this morning before washing out heading into this afternoon. It will be tough to rule out a few light rain showers or sprinkles this morning across our north, but with an overall lack of deeper moisture, think the main effect will just be some increase in clouds. Temperatures will remain mild with afternoon highs mostly in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will reestablish itself across the Ohio Valley tonight into Sunday. This will lead to dry and mild conditions. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs on Sunday in the low to possibly mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... By Sunday night, large scale ridging will be moving in, amplified by a strong area of low pressure moving through southern Canada toward the Hudson Bay area. This allows for continued warm air advection into the Ohio Valley region and recent model runs have come in even warmer Monday and Tuesday, with daytime highs tickling the upper 70s in spots along the Ohio River while overnight lows fall to the upper 40s/low 50s. The cold front associated with this system will be dragged across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday, though FROPA looks to be dry. Behind FROPA, strong continental high pressure pushes in from Canada and temperatures look to moderate back closer to seasonal norms, around 10 degrees cooler than previous days. Large scale ridging and surface high pressure hang around through the end of the working week, slowly getting shunted east as another longwave disturbance begins to develop in western Canada. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some VFR stratocumulus will continue to push slowly southeast this morning as a weak cold front drops down into our area. The front will wash out through this afternoon with high pressure building into the region through tonight. This will lead to a decreasing cloud trend through the second half of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...