975
FXUS61 KILN 120153
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
953 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday
into Wednesday as an upper level low pressures system moves through
the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will
begin to lift slowly northeast overnight. With a mid level ridge
axis still in place across the southern Great Lakes, expect mainly
an increase in high and then mid level clouds across the area through
the night. Can not rule out a few showers or perhaps a sprinkle
south of the Ohio River late tonight, but the airmass is quite dry,
and the better chance for any pcpn will hold off until after
daybreak. Temperatures will be mild tonight with overnight lows from
the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will lift slowly northeast into the southern
Tennessee Valley Monday into Monday night. With embedded bands of
mid level vorticity rotating around the low, occasional showers will
pivot up across our area Monday. This will be moving into a drier
airmass though, so this may help limit more widespread activity. As a
result, have generally kept pops in the higher chance to likely
category. There will likely be some diurnal component to the pcpn and
as we destabilize slightly through the afternoon, a few embedded
thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across our southern
areas, where the afternoon instability should be somewhat better.
With the clouds and some pcpn, temperatures will not be quite as
warm on Monday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. Will then
taper back to just a lower end chance for pcpn through Monday night
as we lose the diurnal heating. Lows Monday night will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A closed upper low southwest of the CWA will situate itself over
southern CWA Tues night and become an open wave early Wed with the
axis of the open wave located over/northeast of the CWA on Wed. A
weak ridge builds in behind this trough late Thurs, becoming zonal
sw-w flow overnight and lingering through Saturday as an upper low
north of the region tracks eastward. Flow behind the upper low turns
nw on Sun, though timing of the exiting low diverges overnight
Saturday with the Euro being more progressive and the GFS holding
back.

Significant cloud cover with light se flow on Tues will produce a
slight increase on Mon`s highs and reach the mid 70s. This
blanketing cloud cover will hold overnight lows to only drop to near
60 degrees. Wed is forecast to be in the mid-upper 70s which is
trending slightly higher toward GFS forecast with little reason to
raise Wed highs from Tues given unchanged upper and lower level
features. Thurs highs in the mid 80s look to be good given slightly
increased thicknesses over the region. It`s overnight that has a
significant boost with lows in the upper 60s. This appears to be
overdone and should have put a higher weight towards the GFS which
is pushing a cold front through the CWA by Fri morning, consistent
with prior runs and in sync with pop chances in this scenario. Went
against NBM which has a scenario showing pops consistent with a weak
fropa, no backing of wind to indicate fropa, and significantly
warmer lows. Can understand the consistent sw flow with a weak
fropa, but the warmer temps in sly flow would not be this high. This
also speaks to Thurs highs being too warm. Agreement on a fropa on
Sat brings highs down to the upper 70s and lows into the mid-upper
50s. Sun and overnight will likely show a continued drop in temps of
about 5 deg on highs and 2 deg on lows.

With few exceptions, models are in fair agreement wrt temps though
Thur/Thur night are too warm in my estimation.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High level clouds will continue to spill into the area tonight from
the south ahead of an upper level low that will lift slowly north
from the lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Monday. Scattered showers
will move into areas along and south of the Ohio River late tonight
and then spread north across the rest of the area Monday morning
into the afternoon. As moisture increases and the low levels moisten
up, some MVFR cigs will develop through the morning hours and into
the afternoon. Weak instability developing through the day, a few
thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon.

Northeast to east winds at 10kts or less overnight will back to the
east-southeast around 10 kts on Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday. MVFR
CIGs expected Monday night into Tuesday, with IFR CIGs possible.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR